Lippi's timing just couldn't be better

Italy to win. Let me say it straight away, I think Italy will beat France tomorrow and for at least three reasons.

Firstly, I think Italy have been the best team in Germany over the six games played. Not only have they played good football but, more importantly, they have timed their tournament brilliantly, getting stronger, fitter and more confident by the match. There is a real sense of gathering momentum about Italy.

Two statistics say much about both the quality of the team and the validity of Marcello Lippi's squad choices: one is that 10 different players - Pirlo, Iaquinta, Gilardino, Materazzi, Inzaghi, Totti, Zambrotta, Toni, Grosso and Del Piero - have scored their 11 goals; the other is that every outfield player in the squad has played at some stage in the tournament. In other words, the only players in the Italian squad not to have played at Germany 2006 have been the two reserve goalkeepers, Amelia and Peruzzi. Then, too, there is the obvious thought that defensively Italy are very, very strong

Secondly, Italy have the advantage of the extra day's rest, since their semi-final was on Tuesday while France played on Wednesday.

Thirdly, I think it is asking a lot of France, a side with plenty of over-30s in their ranks, to play a seventh game in four weeks. I have a hunch this could be a game too many for the French.

The difference between the semi-finals was striking, night and day.

Germany v Italy was an intense game, played at a high tempo, whereas France v Portugal was very poor stuff indeed. France looked a tired, even timid team in the second half; not really willing to try anything. Rather than tell Thierry Henry to lie up there waiting for something on the counterattack, France just hung on in quiet desperation.

For that reason, I think Italy will have too much power, pace and tempo for them tomorrow. The Italians are in such good shape and, given everything that has happened back home for them, they have looked like a team with a point to prove.

I also wonder if, given the possibility that Juventus and/or AC Milan, could yet be relegated as a result of the match-fixing investigation, some of the players will be playing out of their skins, putting themselves about in search of a new club.

There is another thought, too, and it is not a new one. Italy felt pretty badly done by at the last World Cup and, as footballers tend to say, what goes around, comes around. They have had the rub of the green in this tournament, and when luck is on your side you often end up as winner.

With French coach Raymond Domenech, I feel the glass is always half empty. His side promises but does not deliver that much.

In the midst of all the inevitable media fuss about Zinedine Zidane's last game tomorrow, it is worth remembering that France probably owe their place in the final at least as much to Patrick Vieira and Claude Makelele in midfield and to Lilian Thuram and Willy Sagnol in defence as to Zidane.

Likewise, I am not that impressed by Franck Ribery. For me, he blows hot and cold, while Florent Malouda has not done enough in any of France's games. In contrast to them, look at the contribution of both Italy's full backs, Fabio Grosso and Gianluca Zambrotta.

The final matters. If tomorrow's game is a cracker, then we will all go home with a glow, thinking that, by and large, it was not a bad tournament from the football viewpoint. From every other viewpoint - German hospitality, atmosphere, organisation - it has been an outstanding World Cup. In that sense, German are both the losers and the winners of this World Cup. I would like to highlight one thing in particular. The reception afforded the fans was terrific. The Germans said, okay, so you don't have a ticket, but come along to the FanFest and have a party with us, watching it on the Big Screen.

From the football viewpoint, I have no problem with an Italy v France final. As I said before, I think Italy are a seriously good team while France have been one of the great sides of the last decade.

Maybe, we have not seen too many outstanding games but I can still name four that I really enjoyed and where I saw outstanding football, in terms of drama, atmosphere, quality play and good coaching.

My Big Four are Germany v Costa Rica, Germany v Poland, Argentina v Mexico and Germany v Italy. Note that Germany are in three of the four games. It is a simple fact that wherever they played, there was a terrific atmosphere while their coach, Juergen Klinsmann, gave it a go in every match, trying to play bright attacking football.

One game that, curiously, I enjoyed was the last hour of England's quarter-final loss to Portugal. What I enjoyed about it was seeing just how effective England could have been had they played a more traditional, high-tempo, English game right from the start. If they had played right from the start with the spirit they showed when a man down, they might even still be in the competition.

England manager Sven-Goran Eriksson is just one of a number of coaches who have not done well. You would have to ask Felipe Scolari of Portugal what he thought he was doing against England and France, playing without a proper centre forward. It is hard to understand just what purpose Pauleta serves in the Portuguese team.

Then, too, Carlos Alberto Parreira of Brazil hardly covered himself in glory by insisting on sticking with the old guard. He seems a prisoner of his players' reputations - otherwise why pick Ronaldo and Adriano ahead of Robinho, why Cafu ahead of Cicinho?

Then, too, Jose Pekerman of Argentina lost his nerve against Germany, taking off Roman Riquelme and bringing on a defensive midfielder in Esteban Cambiasso instead. Pekerman and Argentina, too, remind me of another key point about this World Cup and tomorrow's final. It is about timing. Argentina, remember, were the wonder team in the first round, but where are they now? Italy on the other hand have timed it just right. As I said, Italy to win.