Lens will help Ireland to focus on task

RUGBY WORLD CUP: The last match analysis I did for this newspaper was on October 20th, 1999, after Ireland had been beaten by 28-24 by Argentina in Lens, thus ending their involvement in the last World Cup. Donal Spring predicts the All Blacks will lift the trophy.

It was a dreadful performance in every aspect, but especially in the final quarter when the game was there to be won or lost. We were found to be totally lacking in imagination and ideas, and the Argentinians deservedly carried the day.

That performance necessitated our pre-qualification for this World Cup and pushed us down the world rankings. However, according to the International Rugby Board we are now ranked third in the world as Rugby World Cup 2003 kicks off.

Anybody who knows anything about rugby knows that this is a load of rubbish.

The principal beneficiary of this IRB "miscalculation" will be the Australian coach, whose team talk has already been prepared for him. The Australians will certainly want to put the record straight. How a country that has beaten you once since 1981 in 13 outings can be ranked ahead of you is something the Australians will have difficulty understanding.

The reality is England, New Zealand and Australia are still a good deal ahead of us, while we have narrowed the gap between France, South Africa and ourselves.

In many ways it is appropriate that the principal obstacle on our way to a place in the quarter-finals is Argentina. Irish supporters would welcome a victory over the Pumas, far more important than any ranking by the IRB, and lay to rest the Ghost of Lens.

The Irish team goes to the World Cup with a lot of victories under their belt, their only two loses being the heavy defeats to Australia and England. Since the new management have taken over they have certainly made the side more efficient and competent, and this has been reflected in the manner in which we have beaten the weaker teams so efficiently and comprehensively. It has also meant we have been capable of beating stronger teams when we have got them on a bad day, as we did with France in Lansdowne Road earlier this year and with Australia in November 2002.

We have not, however, managed to bridge the gap with the top sides when they are on their game, as we saw against England in the Gram Slam decider and Australia when we played them out there during the summer.

I expect Ireland to beat Romania and Namibia comprehensively in the opening games. My only concern in these outings is we do not suffer any serious injuries, because despite the expressed view of coach Eddie O'Sullivan that he could put out two teams of equal strength, I think a few key injuries could really effect the team's performance.

The loss of Geordan Murphy is a huge blow. Girvan Dempsey has given great service and has always been a very reliable and safe full back, but he does not represent the same attacking force as Murphy whose loss will be most pronounced against the stronger teams. The better his opponents the more Murphy's ability becomes obvious.

The management are obviously worried about John Hayes as they have excluded him from the starting line-up in the first game against Romania. They want to have him available for the Argentina and Australia games. The front row should not be under any pressure in the two opening matches, but against the stronger opponents his presence would be sorely missed. It is a tough decision to weigh up the risk of injury against the lack of match practice.

Another matter of concern is that Ireland have entered the game against Argentina having played no heavyweight opponents since our defeat to Australia in June, while in the intervening period Argentina have played against all the top sides in the world and will have already played Australia in their opening game.

Tough matches like that will leave them better prepared for the crucial encounter against Ireland. Games against bad teams, such as we have played in the build-up to the World Cup, do not prepare sides for tough encounters. Despite that, I think Ireland will beat Argentina and finish second in the pool. The fear of losing will be the principal motivating factor.

France and Scotland should emerge from Pool B; South Africa and England from Pool C; and New Zealand and Wales from Pool D. Scotland and Wales do look slightly vulnerable. Either side could be beaten by one of the lesser teams in their group.

The reward for Ireland of qualifying for the quarter-finals is without doubt the best possible runner-up draw. Our chances against France would be far better than against England or New Zealand.

The scenario then is clear, a semi-final position would represent a successful World Cup, a quarter-final a reasonable World Cup, exiting at pool stage another disaster to follow on the last one.

At least O'Sullivan has the comfort of knowing his contract is secure, but I find the failure to clarify the position of his assistants bizarre. The timing of the announcement of his extended contract and the manner in which it was done has caused more problems than benefits, and why both parties could not have agreed to defer the announcement until after the World Cup I do not know.

I think New Zealand will win this tournament because they are the best all-round team. England are clearly their greatest threat, but people write off Australia at their peril, especially in front of their home crowd. I was very impressed with the way the Aussies tore England apart in the last 25 minutes of their recent game when they started to run at their opponents. They will have learned a lot from that.

When New Zealand lost in South Africa in the final eight years ago their problem was they had become too dependent on one player, Jonah Lomu, whom they thought was unstoppable.

England similarly have become too dependent on one player, outhalf Jonny Wilkinson, and without him they are not the same side. He will receive huge attention from South Africa and the hard-hitting Samoans in the pool games. If he survives those outings he will probably carry England through to the final. However, the overall balance in the All Blacks side, and particularly their very impressive back line, will, I believe, result in an All Black win.

I am curious to see the affect of the referees in this competition. The last soccer World Cup in the Far East was hugely influenced by the decisions of the referees. There have been some criticism in past rugby World Cups. We will wait and see how this one unfolds.