Leinster to make the cut with sharper edge

Pool Two/Edinburgh v Leinster: Mark Twain once observed that "facts are stubborn things but statistics are more pliable". The American author would probably therefore be less than impressed with the suggestion that statistically, Edinburgh should be considered favourites for tomorrow's Heineken European Cup match.

The Scottish side have won four of the last five meetings (Magners League) with Leinster and have yet to lose to the Irish province in this tournament. In delving a little deeper, those statistics prove a tad misleading; the facts offering mitigation on Leinster's behalf.

The sides have already met once this season, a Magners League game at Murrayfield in which Edinburgh prevailed 20-14. While the Scottish team retain 14 of the starting line-up from that match - number eight David Callum didn't play that day but replaces the injured Allister Hogg - Leinster will field a side with either eight or nine changes.

Australian international Chris Whitaker's ongoing shoulder problems mean he is again a doubtful starter having not played since the Connacht game. He lined out in the aforementioned match against Edinburgh but it's more likely Cillian Willis will start tomorrow. The 21-year-old acquitted himself well against Gloucester last weekend.

Five of the Leinster pack, Ronan McCormack, Will Green, Trevor Hogan, Stephen Keogh and Jamie Heaslip played in the 20-14 defeat but of the backline, only Felipe Contepomi featured.

The last time Leinster mustered a full side against tomorrow's opponents was in the final game of last season's Celtic League. Leinster required a victory with a bonus point and duly accomplished that goal, winning 31-8.

This confrontation will be a "truer run race", given its context and the relative strength of the teams. Leinster coach Michael Cheika has reiterated all week the importance of this match, not alone in stealing a march on pool rivals but subduing a team which he holds in high regard.

His team's winning performance against Gloucester was achieved by dint of a handful of outstanding individual performances rather than a compelling team display. Leinster's razor-sharp cutting edge ultimately humbled the English team.

The scrum was commendably solid, the lineout not that much of a factor. Leinster's first lineout throw last weekend came in the 33rd minute. They need to ensure greater continuity and retain possession for longer spells. Edinburgh thrive on the counter-attack and are reluctant to hand the ball back.

The Scottish side make a virtue of going through the phases. They can adopt a touchline to touchline approach or when the occasion demands, a more direct approach employing the physicality of 6ft 3in, 17 stone inside centre Rob Dewey.

The home side play the game at pace and Leinster's defence will have to be considerably more resolute than last week. They'll have to realign quicker.

Chris Paterson returns to lead Edinburgh having missed the Agen game with a knee injury. He'll take over the place-kicking duties.

Edinburgh boast pace, athleticism, mobility and power and if encouraged with copious amounts of possession are going to make it a fraught afternoon for their opponents.

In stating the obvious that Leinster need to produce largely flawless set-pieces to establish a foothold in the game, they won't succumb to a conservative approach.

That would be anathema to Contepomi and his cohorts in the three-quarter line. At their best the Leinster backs play with a brio that unhinges all but the most resolute defences and their penchant for opening up is not governed by field position.

Gordon D'Arcy had a superb game against Gloucester on a day when all the three-quarter line chipped in. Contepomi offered a masterclass in place-kicking and one suspects he's going to have to emulate that accuracy tomorrow.

Keogh deservedly retains his place in the pack after a fine display at Lansdowne Road with a fit again Cameron Jowitt among the replacements. He is an excellent ball carrier, which Leinster packs have lacked. They will have to make some hard yards to provide the space the backs crave.

Discipline is an issue in every game but against Edinburgh, being short-handed at any stage could be fatal. It promises to be a very close match, albeit an open and entertaining one. Leinster have stepped up when asked this season and there's no reason to doubt their capacity to do so again.

EDINBURGH: H Southwell; C Paterson (capt), M Di Rollo, R Dewey, S Webster; P Godman, M Blair, A Jacobsen, D Hall, A Dickinson; M Mustchin, S Murray; A Strokosch, R Rennie, D Callam. Replacements: A Kelly, C Smith, S Turnbull, A MacDonald, G Laidlaw, D Hodge, B Cairns.

LEINSTER: G Dempsey; S Horgan, B O'Driscoll (capt), G D'Arcy, D Hickie; F Contepomi, C Whitaker/C Willis; R McCormack, B Blaney, W Green; T Hogan, M O'Kelly; S Keogh, Gleeson, J Heaslip. Replacements: R Corrigan, H Vermaas, O Finegan, C Jowitt, C Willis/A Dunne, K Lewis, L Fitzgerald.

Referee: J Jutge (France).

Previous meetings: (HC 2000-2001) Edinburgh 29 Leinster 21; Leinster 34 Edinburgh 34.

Formguide (HC 2005-2006): Edinburgh lost to Agen (a) 19-17. Leinster bt Gloucester (h) 37-20.

Leading points scorers: Edinburgh - Phil Godman 12. Leinster - Felipe Contepomi 22.

Leading try scorers: Edinburgh - Hugo Southwell 1. Leinster - Felipe Contepomi, Gordon D'Arcy, Stephen Keogh, Shane Horgan 1 each.

Betting (odds courtesy of Paddy Powers): 6/4 Edinburgh, 22/1 Draw, 1/2 Leinster. Handicap odds (= Edinburgh +5pts) 10/11 Edinburgh, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.

Verdict: Leinster to win.