Leinster must keep it tight and finally take their chances

RUGBY HEINEKEN CUP Scarlets v Leinster: LEINSTER KNOW today's match is not a beauty contest and that the aesthetics of their patterns won't matter one whit unless they win. Anything else will invite their pool rivals to have an undue influence over the Irish province's fate.

Last weekend Edinburgh provided an illustration of how a frugal but meticulously delivered playbook can frustrate the Scarlets. The Scots travelled to west Wales, kicked for position, applied pressure at the breakdown and set-piece and defended in a disciplined fashion. The Scarlets played most of the rugby but lost 17-16.

The home side sit proudly atop the pool having travelled to the Madejski Stadium in the opening round and pick-pocketed London Irish in injury time, then followed that with a more blue-collar win over Brive. Their European exploits offer a marked contrast to their form in the Magners League where they languish just one place from the bottom of the table with just two victories.

This is a Scarlets side in transition under the careful tutelage of coach Nigel Davies, backboned by experienced players like former Ireland international Simon Easterby, Stephen Jones, Deacon Manu and former Wallaby David Lyons, complemented by the exuberance and quality of players like wing Andy Fenby and, in particular, centre Jonathan Davies.

Lyons is the mainstay of their go-forward ball up front, carrying aggressively, while the young Davies has been compared to Scott Gibbs in terms of style and power, augmented by a much more lavish skill set. The latter’s partnership with Sean Lamont, a one-time Scotland international wing, promises a fascinating midfield duel with Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll.

Mentally the Scarlets must now deal with an expectation that would not have been present at the start of the campaign. They have said all week that the pressure won’t force them to compromise their expansive, freewheeling ways, but a tight contest might demand they reassess those values. They are missing of couple of big players in wing Mark Jones and flanker Daffyd Jones (both injured), and flanker Josh Turnbull, who is suspended.

Leinster coach Michael Cheika has plumped for Shaun Berne at outhalf and Isa Nacewa on the left wing in the absence of the injured Jonno Sexton and Luke Fitzgerald.

Berne’s presence commandeered significant column inches in the run-up. The Australian is a fine footballer with excellent distribution skills. In an ideal world he’d have enjoyed more game time with his team-mates to hone unit skills and perfect the responsibility of place-kicking. He is mature enough to appreciate his role and also to deal with the accountability that goes with kicking at goal.

While Berne’s role is important, he is largely reliant on the platform he’s handed. The pack must bristle with aggression in the contact areas, getting their numbers right at the breakdown, both in attack and defence. Set-piece excellence is a prerequisite for any success, while it’s difficult to escape the suspicion that Leinster will have to score tries to win.

They have created enough opportunities in most matches this season but too often lacked a little patience and a large dollop of precision to gather up that five- or seven-point bounty. They will not get away with that this evening.

The visitors will look to stifle or ideally negate the Scarlets offloading game, slow their ball at the breakdown and force them to run laterally to push the pass a little too recklessly. They’ll be conscious of taking what will be a boisterous crowd out of the equation as soon as possible, but it’s not simply about stopping the home side.

Leinster must be creative.

It’s on nights like these that the mettle of champions is tested. If Leinster are to progress their quest to retain their crown, then they’ll find the answers.

SCARLETS: D Evans; A Fenby, S Lamont, J Davies, L Williams; S Jones, M Roberts; I Thomas, K Owens, D Manu; L Reed, D Day; S Easterby, R Pugh, D Lyons (capt). Replacements: E Phillips, P John, J Corsi, V Cooper, R McCusker, T Knoyle, R Priestland, G Maule.

LEINSTER: R Kearney; S Horgan, B O'Driscoll, G D'Arcy, I Nacewa; S Berne, E Reddan; C Healy, J Fogarty, CJ van der Linde; L Cullen (capt), N Hines; K McLaughlin, S O'Brien, J Heaslip. Replacements: B Jackman, M Ross, S Wright, M O'Kelly, S Keogh, P O'Donohue, F McFadden, G Dempsey.

Referee: Chris White(England).

Leading points scorers: Scarlets: S Jones 28. Leinster: J Sexton 28.

Leading try scorers: Scarlets: D Evans, L Williams, M Jones, R Thomas 1 each. Leinster: K McLaughlin 2.

Odds: Scarlets 6/4, Leinster 8/15, draw 18/1. Handicap: Scarlets (+5) 10/11, Leinster (-5) 10/11, draw 22/1.

Verdict: Leinster to win.