Kilkenny have stronger hand

GAELIC GAMES:AFTER THE counties played last year, who could have foreseen this? Dublin ended the summer in catastrophe by throwing away a six-point lead to Antrim.

Kilkenny’s five-in-a-row championship ambitions bit the dust, but everyone assumed after the 2011 draw that they’d be back in this year’s final and facing Galway. Instead they face Dublin, who they have failed to beat three times in 2011, including in a national final.

The reversal of fortune of the respective injury lists in the interim makes this a more comfortable prospect for the champions.

Had Kilkenny Henry Shefflin, Richie Power or Michael Fennelly on board in the league final it wouldn’t take a huge leap of imagination to envisage a different outcome. Tomorrow, they’re all back as well as Tommy Walsh.

Dublin are short two key players from May: Tomás Brady and Ryan O’Dwyer.

The context – having failed to beat Dublin in three matches this year – is an incentive for Kilkenny to do so in the match that matters most. Against Wexford it looked like business as usual with the exception of an uncharacteristically leaky full back line, which surprisingly remains unchanged.

The restored Shefflin has provided direction to settle the team and his free-taking is a huge reassurance. Between them, three Kilkenny players missed eight placed balls in the league final.

It’s very hard to imagine Dublin repeating the league final feat of beating Kilkenny while scoring fewer goals, and they will be aware that in the championship they haven’t scored a goal against their opponents in 14 years. This will be a critical issue if Dublin give up the chances they did against Galway, as Kilkenny will be more clinical.

Similarly, they can’t afford scores drying up as they did in Tullamore because Kilkenny will use the hiatus to pull away.

Dublin are confident and motivated and have demonstrated an ability to compete physically and for dropping ball. There is also a practised calculation about their play in the way the ball is moved and possession retained.

They will also fight hard at centrefield without blowing away the opposition. The big differential will be the craft of creating and putting away chances. Kilkenny are better equipped to do this tomorrow than they were in the league final and Dublin aren’t as well resourced to stop them.

DUBLIN: G Maguire; N Corcoran, P Kelly, O Gough; J McCaffrey, J Boland, S Durkin; L Rushe, A McCrabbe; S Lambert, C Keaney, C Mc Cormack; D O’Callaghan, P Ryan, P Carton.

KILKENNY: D Herity; N Hickey, JJ Delaney, J Tyrrell; T Walsh, B Hogan, P Murphy; M Fennelly, M Rice; TJ Reid, R Power,E Larkin; C Fennelly, H Shefflin, R Hogan.

In the last episode:The last provincial final between the counties was just two years ago. Dublin set up for damage limitation and succeeded in keeping the deficit to six points and were competitive without quite threatening to win. Last year's semi-final was back to the bad old days with a 19-point margin, leaving Dublin manager Anthony Daly visibly dejected.

You bet: Kilkenny are 4 to 11 and Dublin 11 to 4 with the draw at 10 to 1. Dublin are available with a handicap of +4 at evens, a big improvement on the +13 offered in 2009.

On your marks: Can a Dublin defence ravaged by injury hold Kilkenny to a competitive score? The champions got in for goals – early and late – last year and any repeat will spell disaster for the challengers.

Gaining ground:Croke Park held over 42,000 when the counties met in the league final but with a solid accompaniment from Galway and Cavan football supporters. Leinster Council doesn't appear to expect much more than the 30,000 which attended the final two years ago.

Just the ticket: Stand €35 with concessionary refund available for students and senior citizens in the Cusack. Hill 16 terrace, €20. One adult and two children €45 in the Cusack and Davin. On sale from GAA ticket office today between 10am and 4pm and tomorrow from 11.30am.

Crystal gazing:If Kilkenny couldn't survive the injury blitz that afflicted them for the league final it's expecting too much of Dublin to do any better.