Italian decline marked by scramble for Euro survival

Italian soccer faces a difficult week. By Wednesday evening, the country which in the last 12 seasons has won five European Cups, six UEFA Cups and three Cup Winners' Cups could find itself left with just two European survivors - Lazio in the UEFA Cup and Vicenza in the Cup Winners' Cup.

Worst of all, for the first time since 1988, Italian soccer could be looking at a Christmas without a representative left in the European Cup. For a nation that has provided a finalist in eight of the last nine years (AC Milan, Sampdoria and Juventus between them), this is traumatic stuff.

This has already been a long and difficult autumn. It began badly with Manchester United's thorough 3-2 drubbing of Juventus in their Old Trafford Champions' League clash in September and continued on in dramatic fashion when England drew 0-0 with Italy in their World Cup qualifier in Rome in October.

Worse could be in store this week. Juventus are on the verge of Champions' League elimination, Parma are all but a mathematical certainty to go out, while current Serie A leaders Inter Milan are also on the brink following a 2-0 loss in their UEFA Cup, third round, first-leg tie with French side Strasbourg two weeks ago. Of the four Italian clubs involved in European competition this week, only one, Rome's Lazio, appears sure to make the next round.

Juventus, six points adrift of United in Champions' League Group B with just nine points, can only hope to scramble into the quarter finals as one of the two best group runners-up. With French side Monaco and German side Bayern Leverkusen tied on 12 points in Group F, and due to meet in Germany on Wednesday, it can be safely assumed that one of these two will take one of the runners-up berths, probably thanks to a convenient draw.

Juventus are then left struggling for the one remaining runners-up berth. This means that they need not just one, but three favourable results: they must first beat United and then hope for a helping hand from results in Groups D and E. A tall order.

Even if Juventus go out, however, their clash with Manchester United tomorrow night can still tell us whether this is a side in irrevocable decline or one temporarily hampered by a combination of early season injuries and poor form. If Juventus were to lose again to United, one could only conclude that a summer transfer season which off-loaded athletic and physically-imposing players such as Croat striker Alen Boksic (Lazio), Italian international striker Christian Vieri (Atletico Madrid) and Yugoslav midfielder Vladimir Jugovic (Lazio) has left Juventus dangerously lightweight in both attack and midfield.

If, on the other hand, Juventus were to win, then the current optimism expressed by club coach Marcello Lippi about the future may be justified. While the rest of us have our doubts, Lippi was trying to put a brave face on things this weekend, saying that he was not unduly worried by United's impressive 3-1 away against old rivals Liverpool.

"Above all, we've got to concentrate on winning the game. Manchester United's win at Liverpool is nothing extraordinary and shouldn't worry us. The fact that Manchester are currently leading the English league says all you need to know about how good they are. But I'm confident about this Juventus because the team is currently in good shape."

They may be in good shape, but they will be without two first-choice players in suspended striker Alessandro del Piero and injured French midfielder Didier Deschamps. Experienced Uruguayan international Daniel Fonseca replaces del Piero in attack alongside Filippo Inzaghi, while Alessio Tacchinardi replaces Deschamps to join Angelo Di Livio, Frenchman Zinedine Zidane and captain Antonio Conte in midfield. Not even the return of Uruguayan Paolo Montero to central defence (he played in the 2-1 Juventus win against Lazio on Saturday) provides much hope.

At least Juventus have some residual hope. Parma travel to Turkey for a largely irrelevant clash with Galatasaray. With just eight points in a Group A dominated by holders Borussia Dortmund, Parma are all but mathematically eliminated. Perhaps Italian fortunes will take an upturn at the San Siro in Milan tonight when current league leaders Inter Milan face Strasbourg, the side that has already eliminated Glasgow Rangers and Liverpool. Inter have spent much of the last fortnight arguing with the Brazilian federation so that they might hold on to Ronaldo for tonight's game, after which Ronaldo flies off to Saudi Arabia for Brazilian duty in the Confederation Cup.

Having held on to Ronaldo (he scored Inter's goal on Saturday) and with an attacking line out which sees Frenchman Youri Djorkaeff and Maurizio Ganz partner the Brazilian, victory is still possible. However, Inter's against-the-odds qualification may be the week's only good news for Italian soccer.