Irish likely to be among second seeds

The Republic of Ireland will avoid first round clashes with both England and Portugal in next June's World Cup finals if FIFA press ahead next week with plans to organise the seeding in the same way as was done for France '98.

FIFA officials have suggested that the system used to sort out the seedings for Saturday week's finals draw in Busan, Japan, will be the same as that used four years ago, and if confirmed the decision will mean that Ireland will be second seeds for the competition, as will England and Portugal.

Under the system, competing nations are ranked according to their performances in the last three World Cups as well as their current FIFA world ranking. Performances at USA '94 carry double, and France '98 three times, the weight of those at Italia '90, while the world ranking is the most important individual factor of all.

Geography is then thrown in to the mix as the organisers of next summer's finals in Japan and South Korea attempt to minimise the number of countries from the same federations in each group.

Though the numbers may alter very slightly later this week when the ranking list is updated, the system is likely to place Ireland in 14th position of the 32 qualifying nations, with the result of the play-off between Australia and Uruguay making no difference as either would be well below Mick McCarthy's side in the ratings.

That will mean that, after Europe's most powerful nations have been included in the top seeds, McCarthy's men will be placed in the draw's second pot, alongside the rest of the middle-ranking UEFA sides.

These also include Croatia and Belgium, two of the teams that Ireland have faced in recent qualifying campaigns.

Guaranteed to be top seeds, meanwhile, are champions France, 1998's beaten finalists Brazil as well as both host nations, Japan and South Korea, whose presence in the first pot looks set to cost England and Mexico the places that their ranking would suggest they are entitled to.

Behind the exclusively European second group will be a pot made up of the Asians, as well as the weaker Europeans and South Americans. This will include Slovenia and Poland as well as Ecuador, Paraguay and either Australia or Uruguay.

The fourth group of countries will then be a combination of North American and African, with Mexico suffering the misfortune of being seeded fourth despite being better established and more consistent at this level than any of the others included.

The effect of the tinkering is that Ireland could, in theory, end up in a group with South Korea, Ecuador and Senegal next summer, all three of whom are ranked amongst the bottom four competing nations, according to FIFA's own calculations.

If, on the other hand, McCarthy is unlucky next week the Republic could end up facing the prospect of battling it out with the likes of France, Mexico and Paraguay, all of whom are rated above Ireland for the purpose of the draw.

The scheme still has to be ratified by a meeting of senior FIFA officials three days before the draw, but despite some minor disagreements over the fairness of the system it looks almost certain to form the basis on which next year's competition will be organised.