Ireland will beat Wales, so it's the performance that counts

The big danger for the men in green will be letting the game drift into multiphase play

‘OH, MY God, she’s not Welsh, is she?” That’s the reaction from first World War renowned military tactician General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmanay Melchetts to being matched with a female partner. To be fair to Blackadder’s General Melchett, the Welsh do conjure up all sorts of images: most recently from “Driving Miss Powell”.

Where France tested Ireland’s global rugby status and England our Home Nations status, Wales tomorrow will test our performance status.

Wales, with their imbalance of weaker forwards and electric backs, look for minimal contact with plenty of offloads. They keep the ball alive at all costs, which can prove very advantageous – not for the Welsh but for Ireland. I can’t imagine the Welsh handing Ireland such easy points as they did to France, but Ireland’s template of a maximum pressure game will force major errors.

Both talismen, James Hook and Shane Williams, are liable – 20-0 down at half-time against France!

Ireland are better in every position than Wales and the Ireland psyche has an inert natural leadership throughout the side the Welsh simply can’t match. Ireland will win, so it’s the performance that counts.

For the Welsh to win tomorrow their back three must exert influence. They therefore must have the ball. Tactically, Ireland have a key question to answer: do they gift lineouts to the Welsh, as they did 19 times in Twickenham, or do they keep the ball out of touch and trust defensive coach Les Kiss’ structures? Regardless of Luke Charteris’ presence, the Welsh lineout is poor. Leinster have elected for the latter approach against the Ospreys, with great results. Either way, Ireland will concede possession.

Although Ireland missed only one tackle against England their defence will be tested to a far greater degree tomorrow. The possession stats will be 50:50, and when the Welsh have the ball their attack is based on weak shoulders, space and high-tempo offloads. England could only dream of this.

The big danger for Ireland will be allowing the game to drift into multiphase play. As stated over and again, Ireland score off first phase and concede off multiphase. Hence I expect Ireland to bring a strong kicking game and play territory.

At a glance, tomorrow’s starting outhalves have a strange similarity, but Stephen Jones simply doesn’t have the range of skills to match Jonny Sexton or Ronan O’Gara. I expect O’Gara to have a huge influence over the result on his arrival and to exploit Jones no end. There is always a massive advantage sitting on the bench, working out patterns before being launched. O’Gara has the experience, rugby brain and leadership to offer enormous value on his entry.

Ireland’s kicking game is improving and their work ethic steers towards a deep kicking game, with immense trust in the chasing defensive line. However, Jones has the game to punish the Ireland defence and the centres to exploit the chip over the top. Tomás O’Leary must remain vigilant.

Geordan Murphy has at last secured two consecutive starts and will no doubt revel in the opportunity. His reselection is excellent for him but primarily for squad competition. His game will be tested tomorrow, much more so than in Twickenham. England’s kicking game was appalling, where Jonny Wilkinson didn’t time the arrival of the ball with an English tackler.

Murphy has remained a class player, but Jones and Hook will vary the location of the ball, which will test him no end by moving him around the park. The Welsh back three will also test his defence off both shoulders. To balance this, he needs to ignite the Ireland talent as only he can.

Wales beat Ireland to the Grand Slam punch in 2005 and in many senses they will beat Ireland to the downturn. Their club game lacks any tangible culture we have witnessed in France, England and Ireland. There is an obvious lack of leadership in the group.

Hook is carrying far too much on his shoulders. As a converted outhalf he is expected to make big decisions on the hoof and follow up with expert execution. Time will be very much at a premium tomorrow, and with the “centurion” Brian O’Driscoll in the outside channel neither Shane Williams nor Hook will profit.

Interestingly, Jamie Roberts struggled at times handling big boy Mathieu Bastareaud. With that in mind, the balance in the Ireland backrow is perfect, particularly with the centres in tow. I’m really excited with the prospects of Stephen Ferris. There is no one on the pitch capable of stunting him. He could certainly tie up the Welsh inside men, Roberts and Jones, creating space for Ireland backs.

Gareth Delve, the Gloucester number eight, can carry the ball but is very limited in experience. He’ll certainly want to launch his 18st from the base of the scrum. In the Guinness Premiership he has a habit of turning up in midfield plays. His captain, Martyn Williams, is not the player he was, particularly in a tight game: advantage Ireland.

I couldn’t help but pick up the concerned tone from the sports announcers on Tuesday. No selection changes from Declan Kidney but the quivering tones surrounded the tighthead selection. Why has John Hayes’ contribution been questioned? Yes, there is no obvious replacement for him, but that is Kidney’s problem. In the meantime his selection is warranted.

O’Leary’s second try against Italy was timely and laid the foundation for the win. How did it come about? Obviously Ireland forced Italy deep into their own 22. Not unsurprisingly, the Azzurri elected for a short lineout, designed to give a huge advantage. The Italian secondrows, Carlo Antonio Del Fava and Quintin Geldenhuys, lined up against Paul O’Connell and John Hayes (not Leo Cullen). Number eight Alessandro Zanni entered from the scrumhalf position to lift Del Fava. Leonardo Ghiraldini threw over the top, into Cullen’s hands, who had ignored O’Connell, and he rumbled up against Martin Castrogiovanni. From the resultant ruck O’Leary dived over.

Considering the 10-metre space available to hooker Ghiraldini, why did he fire the ball over his target? Although without two lifters, O’Connell managed to get up to his full height, which released Cullen. His lifter, and the main reason for the O’Leary try, was John Hayes.

And to his fellow triple-figured international, what a day it’ll be for the warrior centurion O’Driscoll and family . . . Without doubt the best player I’ve ever had the pleasure to hold a tackle bag for! A big performance and win please, maith an buachaill.

liamtoland@yahoo.com