Ireland must plan for the unexpected

RUGBY:If the game plan doesn't work, Declan Kidney's men must be ready and willing to embrace change in New Zealand, writes LIAM TOLANDrugby analyst

For all the sad words of tongue and pen the saddest are these, ‘it might have been.

JOHN GREENLEAF Whittier stumbled across these words in the 1800s and for Brian O’Driscoll and his squad I truly hope that’s where they’ll stay. I admire every aspect of O’Driscoll’s persona, none more so than his rebirth when all and sundry had written him off. For that and much more he deserves to bow out on his fourth Rugby World Cup with a win rather than a whimper. We too, the ever-growing support base, deserve a performing World Cup, realistic in the knowledge that even when performing at our best we may struggle.

I’ve watched the Wallaby v All Black match in its entirety this week and parts of it are frightening. Apart from their obvious differences, both sides shared one common denominator. When the game was ebbing away from them they could effect change. They managed this by reverting back to their type, or their version of type.

Funnily the All Blacks don’t have massive invention or variety in their game. In fact (unlike Quade Cooper’s Australia) it’s rare you would shout at the TV with excitement from an All Black play. However through weight of numbers and constant repetition they eke forward. “Weight” of numbers is an interesting concept as they are no weightier than our bunch, especially the pack, but they are much more effective with their body weight and with it they effect change.

Based on last Saturday’s game in Australia, England will provide either side on show a tough challenge. Not because they are a better rugby team but because like the Donegal footballers they are capable of inflicting their game on the opposition.

Instead of complaining about the “Donegal” style, world rugby provides this intriguing contest for us every four years where major clashes of playing cultures collide, all trying to figure each other out and inflict their game plan.

I for one am very excited by how sides attempt to negotiate sides like England. Ireland have done this very successfully over the years through a very sharp lineout and excellent clearing of the ruck.

In the Grand Slam season our backrow was the least likely of the Six Nations teams to pass the ball but we hit, cleared and won more breakdowns than any other side. From there our kicking game through Ronan O’Gara and co was excellent.

Here’s the source of recent Ireland’s troubles. When facing a side such as England (or France), if Plan A doesn’t work we have struggled to shake off the shackles of the opposition and effect change. Under pressure, hunting for an opening we look a little unsure as Plan B has become a mutation of Munster and Leinster play.

Allied to that in these circumstances we have also conceded the breakdown. Our two building blocks, especially over the English, has been a functioning lineout and an ability to dictate the pace at the breakdown.

A lineout is not deemed a success when the hooker finds the catcher. Suffice to say the stats will have 100 per cent winning lineouts if Jerry Flannery finds Paul O’Connell and co every time. However a lineout is only deemed a success (or should be) when the ball arrives at its ultimate target having moved the opposition around the track, opening holes for the halfbacks to expose through the subsequent mismatches.

It’s been a while since this happened but the lineout will improve. As it improves it will also afford the creation of mismatches. Either way the ball will arrive at the breakdown and we must be ferocious in the clearout to aid the mismatches. This has not been happening either.

This is where the teams playing in the Tri-Nations, and particularly Australia last Saturday, excelled: precision under pressure. Rarely will you see a wayward intercept pass or a half-hearted breakdown.

The beauty for the weeks to come is Ireland, especially against Australia, will be ferocious at the breakdown which will transform our patterns. The lineout will also improve and hopefully the quality of play beyond. The scrum, based on the Heineken Cup and Six Nations, will match all the scrums in our group as it proved at crucial times against England; greater challenges await it.

Our natural type is more linked to the Munster game than Leinster and that’s no bad thing but it does create confusion in the ranks because key generals are more comfortable in the alternate.

Why, for instance, have we tapped penalty opportunities when going down the line or for the posts is more natural to us such as when O’Gara “wagged” the ball into the English midfield from inside his 22? All this achieved was a flow of white shirts culminating in an Ireland defensive lineout. He’d never do this when playing for Munster. Jonny Sexton is guilty of “tapping” penalties also.

Where New Zealand stick to their game plan, focused on a number of attacking channels, they have an abundance of attacking options and ball carriers therein, we don’t so our variety must maximise our resources. It may be old school but I think back to the Puma’s scrumhalf Agustin Pichot who created untold damage through the variety in his game. Assuming a better breakdown from our pack, our scrumhalf becomes infinitely more crucial than ever before.

Pichot would get a fringe runner going, chip the ball over the top, make a break, hit his 10, reverse pass and run up the middle, all in the space of a few minutes. None of which was possible without the support of his middle tier, reacting to him. Getting more from our front five falls to our scrumhalf where Isaac Boss is much more combative, Conor Murray more elusive and Eoin Reddan a combination of both. Who wins?

Both Australia and New Zealand target the inside channel in the total confidence that they will break the gain line. With the exception of Seán O’Brien, Cian Healy and latterly Stephen Ferris, we have hit a brick wall. They can’t do it every time so our blindside wingers must help Gordon D’Arcy and carry, as too must our secondrows.

Our pair are not dissimilar to the Wallabies “rows” but they pile every pound of their weight into the ball going forward, especially in supporting each other. At the breakdown, it’s missiles away stuff. Allied to this our kicking game must improve in both variety and tactical nuance. Don’t be fooled, Australia are very adept at maximising the kick.

Unlike the World Cup of 2007 this team of winners must be able to effect change when not all’s going to plan.

PS. I’m sure Greenleaf Whittier’s words are echoing in Conor Niland’s ears these past few days. Having fought so hard to get to the Arthur Ashe Stadium, to have his performance severely tainted by food poisoning was much too cruel. But crueller still is a career-ending injury mid flight or worse before getting started. We’ve all had our horror injuries and setbacks but to Ian McKinley my heart crumbles . . . it might have been.