Ireland must learn that Plan A may not be enough

As we were busy perfecting Plan A, which was pretty damn good, Wales for months, even years, were perfecting Plans B and C

SO THE All Blacks have made it into the semi-final, so too the Wallabies; predictable? Wales have travelled an unbelievable distance in a few short months, making their arrival slightly less so but that France have made it into the semi-final requires our attention. A team that is dysfunctional in its selection, struggling to know what it wants but can turn it on “periodically” when required demands us to take notice. Irish rugby should take notice.

Tomorrow the Wales-France outcome is far too unpredictable, almost immaterial, as either side is more than capable of winning. What I’m interested in, from an Irish point of view, is how will the plans go? The Irish Times headline last Monday read, “Kidney feels the hurt after Wales execute perfect plan.” A plan is only perfect if you are allowed to execute it. Why? – because we can never completely predict the actions of the opposition and must plan accordingly. What happens when the plan goes awry and how much influence will rest on the number 10s when it does?

Morgan Parra continues at outhalf and unlike Declan Kidney’s very tactful and measured approach, Parra’s coach has been brutally open about reasons for selection. Good for Parra but pretty horrible for his deputy; “From the moment I realised François Trinh-Duc wasn’t at his best level and that he seemed to doubt himself, and David Skrela was forced to withdraw due to injury, the choice of naming Morgan at 10 became obvious,” said Lièvremont. Whatever he doubted prior to Lièvremont’s comments Trinh-Duc will surely be asking himself some serious questions.

The relevance to Ireland is found in Parra. Not only is he a part-time outhalf, he is, at 80kg, not far off a stone lighter than Ronan O’Gara at 84kg. Allied to this France don’t have an out and out openside in the nature of Sam Warburton. Yes we have evolved over the weeks but not fast enough over the past couple of years and we have not kept pace with our immediate competition.

The Monday after the brilliant Australia victory I asked could Ireland maintain the extraordinary levels of intensity that masks the technical imbalances that exist between Ireland and the “top-tier” teams all the way to the final. Hence my focusing on Samoa’s physicality because I felt it was crucial to an Irish success over Wales. In other words a hugely physical performance from Ireland would have put Rhys Priestland under pressure. It would also have reduced Warburton’s influence and no doubt placed great pressure on Davies at outside centre.

These ingredients were crucial and allied to our “cup” experience would see us home. That intensity was lacking last Saturday, which leaves us with the technical. Australia were pulverised by South Africa but through natural technical ability and flexible game plans took their meagre opportunities.

Ireland will acknowledge that turning over the ball through handling errors in lineouts, etc, failing to score when excellent chances were created and conceding tries through poor defending made executing our plan over Wales very difficult. They deserved to win but Ireland are better than we witnessed on Saturday. Without the intensity that existed against Australia they couldn’t match the swarms of Welsh who suffocated their every move.

The mistakes and turnovers are but one part of the conundrum as there exists another. The living, breathing side, when you have the ball. Especially when the opposition having examined and targeted all the obvious strengths, successfully reduce the attack “to give it to Seán O’Brien”. There are deficiencies in the Irish game highlighted in the autumn series and again against Russia. With the exception of the Italian match, Ireland have struggled with the ball in hand. The question for tomorrow and Ireland’s growth is how will France, with a tiny tot at 10 and a lack of a David Pocock at seven, use the ball. How will they negotiate the Welsh? Apart from the terribly unfair advantage France have over Ireland with population and rugby playing numbers and the obvious fact of an early warning from watching Wales perform against Ireland it’s not unfair to compare, for learning purposes, France’s performance to Ireland’s.

So will Parra be battered about the place? It is expected Wales will target Parra as they did O’Gara but the French physicality and their latent ability will make for fascinating viewing. France will be physical but beyond that they have a variety of ways to attack and will surely get outside the Welsh.

Ireland struggled to combat the defensive style employed by Wales and surprisingly lacked another option when the initial plan went awry. We’ve all been a little myopic in our judgment of team selection, plumping for the next match and maybe not for the overall goal down the track.

My lesson from RWC 2011 is we need to create a team for the overall goal and not just the immediate hurdle. We must trust it as it builds momentum, but can slip between plan A, B and C. As we were busy perfecting Plan A, which was pretty damn good (beating Australia and Italy) Wales for months, even years, were perfecting Plans B and C.

As Wales executed their perfect plan what did Ireland do to combat it, slip to plan B or C, or is that capability within us? Wales were immense in defence, cutting off the Irish midfield and targeting our big ball-carriers around the ankles, which exposed our tactics. Australia were awful in much of what they did and for times tomorrow France will be too.

As Ireland discovered, handling errors will fluctuate, as will intensity, hence I’m interested in Parra and the French backrow tomorrow because I’m very keen to observe their tactics and most importantly, the tactics of the remaining 11 French players and how they can attack and potentially punish the Welsh.

In essence, watch neither Parra nor his backrow but the remainder. As for the Welsh, I’ve long been an admirer. They have developed something very special these past months and I hope they carry it all the way.