Ireland can weather the storm

RUGBY/Six Nations Preview: Ireland return home on the back of one of their most celebrated wins to take on traditional underdogs whom they've beaten six times in a row, scoring an average of 45 points in the process.

And if Irish rugby tradition has taught us anything it is that these conditions are ripe for a proverbial banana skin.

All the more so as the weather may be anything but ideal. Eddie O'Sullivan could scarcely conceal his disquiet at a breezily cold Lansdowne Road for an eve-of-match run-out yesterday or at the prospect of worse to come today.

His customary pre-match angst may not have been helped by losing one of the team's main pillars of forward and lineout strength this past year, namely Paul O'Connell. It transpires the Munster lock had been nursing bruised ribs since the English game, but the problem flared up by yesterday morning, when he was withdrawn.

At least Donncha O'Callaghan is back fit again and will bring a similar mix of Munster dog, physical strength and irreverence - qualities that will be needed in abundance for a head-to-head with the Azzurri, not exactly known for being shrinking violets when it comes to the bump and grind up front. Gary Longwell is promoted to the bench.

In any case, O'Sullivan appeared a good deal more discommoded by the weather.

"It's like a wind tunnel out there at the moment," bemoaned the Irish coach, "and if it rains it could become almost impossible to play, but the forecast isn't good." A hidden subtext is that the conditions could prove something of a leveller.

Certainly the exceptionally strong and relatively young front row of Andrea Lo Cicero, Fabio Ongaro and Martin Castrogiovanni will be relishing plenty of scrums and close-quarter action against the Irish pack. The box kicking of dreadlocked Kiwi scrumhalf Paul Griffen, a sniping presence who also dovetails with his forwards close in, could be ideal for the conditions.

The loss of the athletic, ball-playing young number eight Sergio Parisse further diminishes Italy's dynamism and mobility, though the return of another New Zealander, Scott Palmer, along with the old try-scoring warhorse Carlo Checchinato, as well as the ultra-straight and hard running of another veteran, Cristian Stoica, suggests the Azzurri will be every bit as physical as Ireland expect them to be.

A TV-dictated 1.30 kick-off is probably not designed to ensure anything like the atmosphere which will prevail at 4 o'clock a week later with a Triple Crown in the air against Scotland.

If the crowd turn up expecting a rout and - were an almighty scrap to unfold on a foul day - become as frustrated as the home side, you fear it mightn't be the best of occasions.

Theoretically, aside from next week's tilt at a first Triple Crown since 1985, Ireland are also still in contention to win a first championship crown since that same year. However, they are outsiders of the three contenders, as reflected by their odds of 7 to 1.

Not only would they require England to win in Paris on the last day of the campaign but, barring a slip-up by England or France against Wales and Scotland this weekend, Ireland would then have to possess a superior points difference to both their main rivals.

As things stand, Ireland are plus-9, compared to England's plus-57 and France's plus-50.

Ireland would thus have to dip their bread quite significantly against both Italy and Scotland over the last two rounds, but needless to say, to use one of his own Eddie-isms, the Irish coach is not inclined to put the cart before the horse.

"I suppose it crosses your mind but it would be a terribly bad focus for a team going into a test match. You've got to get things in the right order, and if you talk about points difference going into a game it has a great way of landing you on your ass very quickly.

"So I believe the most important thing is to go out and plan to beat Italy, and if we beat them by one point great, and if we beat them by more than one point even better."

Certainly, this Italian team often make opposing teams look ugly, even in victory. No matter how narrow they might become, or how many numbers they have to commit to rucks, the Azzurri are well capable of recycling the ball ad nauseam.

It's just finishing the multi-phases off has been their problem for a while now, given their lack of a real playmaker in the middle and one or two pacy finishers. Hence one try from three games thus far, a dubiously awarded effort from five metres off a lost lineout.

Patience may well be one of Ireland's most necessary virtues today. But forewarned is forearmed, nowhere more so than in the front row, where Reggie Corrigan, Shane Byrne and John Hayes usually deliver when people fear for them most.

The week's respite has given Ireland the opportunity to draw a line under the England win. They are an eminently more professional outfit than the old, inconsistent sides of yore, and have made all the right noises.

With Geordan Murphy back in harness, and Brian O'Driscoll no doubt itching to rewrite the criticisms of his last outing, and a real openside in Keith Gleeson, they'd have preferred weather more suitable to moving Italy from touchline to touchline.

But even with a bit more of a struggle up front, and without the carnage they wreaked on the English lineout, Ireland have a vastly sharper cutting edge.

As in the last half dozen meetings, that's what will count on the scoreboard.

Overall record: Played 10, Ireland 7 wins, Italy 3 wins, Draws 0.

Highest scores: Ireland 61-6 in 2003. Italy 37-29 in 1997 and 37-22 in 1997.

Biggest wins: Ireland 61-6 in 2003. Italy 37-22 in 1997.

Last five: 2000 - Ireland 60 Italy 13; 2001 - Italy 22 Ireland 41; 2002 - Ireland 32 Italy 17; 2003 - Italy 13 Ireland 37; Ireland 61 Italy 6.

Betting (Paddy Powers): (Handicap odds = Italy +27pts) 10/11 Ireland, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Italy.

Forecast: Ireland to win.