History weighs heavily against Wales's chances

Euro 2004 qualifying: As Wales prepare for their Euro 2004 qualifier against Italy in Milan tonight, readers should note all references to an Old Testament context involving a Philistine warrior and a stone slinger are purely accidental. Group 9 - Italy v Wales

Leaving aside the David-and-Goliath cliché, though, it gives some measure of the progress made by the Welsh that they come into tonight's game not only on top of Group 9, two points clear of Italy, but also knowing a draw could see them into next year's European Championship finals in Portugal. If the Welsh were to "get a result" tonight, they would surely fancy themselves in their final two Group games, against Finland and Serbia Montenegro, at home.

Getting that result, however, could be a very big if indeed. History is against the Welsh. In 35 games at the San Siro, Italy have never lost. More importantly, this is a much-changed Italy from the one Wales deservedly beat 2-1 at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff 11 months ago.

One year ago, Italy were still licking the wounds of a humiliating and premature exit from the World Cup. It seemed only a matter of days before coach Giovanni Trapattoni got the old heave-ho. One year later, Trapattoni is still in charge and Italy have not lost since Cardiff, picking up six straight wins in 2003, including a recent 1-0 defeat of Germany in Stuttgart.

Wales, in contrast, come into this game on the back of their first group defeat, having lost 1-0 to Serbia Montenegro last month. Even if no less an authority than Trapattoni has stated Wales did not deserve to lose that night, the defeat may have struck a heavy blow to Welsh self-confidence.

Nor do the mathematics of Group 9 help the Welsh much since a home win for Italy would see them overtake Wales and in all probability go on to win the Group, leaving the Welsh to face the lottery of the play-offs.

It could be argued, too, that the week-long wrangle between the Welsh FA and Newcastle United about Craig Bellamy was hardly the ideal preparation. Bellamy, who has missed three matches for Newcastle since a troublesome right-knee injury flared up again during that defeat by Serbia, is expected to start. Newcastle have been rather underwhelmed by the idea of Bellamy turning out in such a potentially tough game.

In truth, although Bellamy's inclusion will represent a calculated gamble on the part of manager Mark Hughes, Welsh hopes will arguably rely even more on Celtic striker John Hartson. Against Italy in Cardiff last October, Hartson's ability to win and hold up the ball while waiting for such as Bellamy, Simon Davies and Ryan Giggs to arrive was critical. If he can repeat that performance nothing is impossible for the Welsh.

Ironically, Hughes's biggest injury problems do not concern Bellamy in attack but rather his defence, where he may well be without central defenders Fulham's Andy Melville and Cardiff's Danny Gabbidon, due to be replaced by Sheffield United's Robert Page and Reading's Adrian Williams respectively.

Italy have their injury problems. AS Roma playmaker Francesco Totti is out through injury but Trapattoni was boosted yesterday by the news Inter striker Christian Vieri has recovered from his knee injury. Yet, the difference in squad strength between Italy and Wales is underlined by the quality of players Trapattoni can call up to replace these two.

Roma's Marco Delvecchio and Lazio's Bernardo Corradi are on standby for Vieri to partner AC Milan's Filippo Inzaghi up front, with Juventus striker Alessandro Del Piero due to play behind them wide on the left. With the Buffon-Nesta-Cannavaro trio carrying the defence and with grafters such as the Italo-Argentine Mauro Camoranesi and Alessio Tacchinardi in midfield, this is a strong side. Perhaps too strong for Wales.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS

ITALY (4-4-2): Buffon; Panucci, Nesta, Cannavaro, Zambrotta; Camoranesi, Tacchinardi, Gattuso, Del Piero; Inzaghi, Vieri (Corradi).

WALES (4-5-1): Jones; Delaney, Page, Williams, Speed; Bellamy, Savage, Pembridge, Davies, Giggs; Hartson.

San Siro, 7.45, On TV: BBC 2