Weekend Gaelic Games previews

SATURDAY

Leinster SFC quarter-final 
Dublin v Laois Nowlan Park, 7.00 Live, Sky Sports 3, 6.0
Sometimes you have to pause and stake stock of just how far beyond the Leinster galaxy Dublin have travelled in recent times. One defeat in 10 years is quite a stat but it's unlikely to tell you anything you don't already know. Maybe a better one is the fact that you have to go back three years to find the last time they won a provincial game by less than double digits.

Or maybe this is a better one again. The average winning margin since they last lost a Leinster Championship game, season on season, has gone from four points in 2011 to seven (2012) to 13 (2013) to 14 (2014) to 19.66 (2015).

Actually, here’s maybe the best stat of the lot. Of the team named to face Laois in Nowlan Park on Saturday, eight players – Cluxton, McMahon, McCarthy, Macauley, Flynn, McManamon, Connolly and Brogan – started against the same opponents in their first game of the 2011 Championship. The talk of Dublin’s legendary depth of panel only cuts so much mustard – this run has been backboned by a core of the same players, all of them improving as they go. Of those eight, only McManamon hasn’t won an All Star in the meantime.

And yet, as we’ve seen, the winning margins just keep rocketing. A five-fold increase in five seasons begs the question – have they got so much better or have other teams got so much worse? It’s only two years since Laois led Dublin at half-time in this fixture, yet they go in here with bookies offering 1/100 about Jim Gavin’s men. Rightly or wrongly, that says one thing loud and clear – most folk have given the Leinster Championship up as a dead loss.

Dublin vow to put to bed any talk that they can’t win outside Croke Park. Just for the record, literally nobody said any such thing. The venue couldn’t be more of a red herring. Nowlan Park isn’t some tight provincial ground designed to trip the Dubs up – its dimensions are exactly the same as Croke Park. When you add in the weather, conditions should be ripe for Dublin to put a significant amount of hurt on Mick Lillis’ side. For a straw to clutch at, it’s entirely conceivable that Donie Kingston will make hay at the edge of the square up against a Rory-O’Carroll-less Dublin full-back line. But after that, what?

Will it be a 20-pointer? It will be whatever Dublin want it to be.

Last meeting: Leinster SFC quarter-final, at Croke Park, Dublin 2-21 Laois 0-14.
Odds: Dublin 1/100, Laois 20/1, Draw 40/1
Just the ticket: Stand €20, Terrace €10, Juveniles €5 
Verdict: Dublin by double figures

DUBLIN: S Cluxton; P McMahon, J Cooper, D Byrne; J McCarthy, C O'Sullivan, J Small; MD Macauley, B Fenton; P Flynn, D Rock, C Kilkenny; K McManamon, D Connolly, B Brogan.

LAOIS: G Brody; D O'Connor, M Timmons, P Cotter; S Attride, D Strong, C Begley; C Meredith, B Quigley; P Cahillane, J O'Loughlin, G Dillon; D Kingston, E O'Carroll, G Walsh.

Referee: Ciarán Branagan (Down)

Christy Ring Cup final
Antrim v Meath, Croke Park, 5.30
Antrim's arduous road back to the top table of hurling begins here with the prospect of returning to the Liam MacCarthy fold after dropping out last year for the first time in 10 years. Failure to secure promotion in the league was a blow but after a change of management and despite player availability issues they come to Croke Park favourites to beat a first-time finalists Meath.

Nicky Rackard Cup final
Armagh v Mayo, Croke Park, 3.30
Mayo are trying to bounce back into the Ring after a year out but Armagh beat them to the Division Two B title and are fancied to win this as well.

Lory Meagher Cup final
Louth v Sligo, Croke Park, 1.30
Louth can make it fifth time lucky in a Rackard final and reverse the result when the counties last met at this stage eight years ago.

SUNDAY

Ulster SFC quarter-final 
Monaghan v Down Clones, 2.00 Live, RTÉ Two, 1.30 
Slightly strange territory for Monaghan, this. Much and all as two Ulster titles in three years ought to lend them some bit of a swagger, they just wouldn't be used to going into a championship game against Down so heavily-fancied. The bookies have it a four-point game – handicap-backers might want to take note of the fact that in 15 encounters over the past 50 years, Monaghan have won by more than four points only once – in 1988.

Then again, it hardly takes a huge leap to see them as comfortable victors here. Down haven’t won a game in league or championship in 14 months. They haven’t won a game in Ulster since this weekend three years ago. They lost seven out of seven in the league and were the lowest scorers in the country, the only side to average below 10 points a game. For context, the next worst were London who, despite finishing bottom of Division Four, still averaged two points a game more (4-71 as compared to Down’s 2-60).

Any way you spin it, Down have had a rotten time of it since being promoted at the end of the 2015 league. Last summer was a wash-out, with an unlucky one-point defeat to Derry followed by an 2-16 to 2-11 loss away to Wexford. For a team that was solidly worth its place in Division One and some of whose players have seen action in an All-Ireland final, the slide has been steep.

It’s hard to give them even a puncher’s chance here. All available insight/gossip has them going ultra-defensive in Clones, the full 14-men back effort with one attacker 80 yards away. Much like the Cork hurlers, there’s DNA issue with Down when it comes to this kind of thing. Where Monaghan have been perfecting it for four seasons now, you get the sense Down’s players will be holding their nose and doing it out of duty. Never a recipe for success.

Monaghan have named a pretty seasoned side, with Dessie Mone in after spending a lot of the league on the sidelines. Darren Hughes could be a doubt after carrying an injury throughout the build-up, although it appears Conor McManus is good to go after an interrupted preparation.

As ever, McManus will be the key man and probably has enough about him to come close to matching Down’s total by himself. The margin of victory will come down to what sort of contribution is chipped in by his team-mates.

Last meeting: 2012 Ulster SFC semi-final, at Athletic Grounds, Down 1-14 Monaghan 1-13. 
Odds: Monaghan 3/10, Down 9/2, Draw 11/1 
Just the ticket: Adult stand: €25/£20; Adult terrace €15/£12; Student: €10/£8; U16 €5/€5 (stand), Free (terrace). 
Verdict: Monaghan by six

MONAGHAN: R Beggan; C Walshe, D Wylie, R Wylie; D Mone, V Corey, K O'Connell; N McAdam, K Hughes; S Carey, D Malone, R McAnespie; O Duffy, D Hughes, C McManus.

DOWN (possible): M Cunningham; D O'Hagan, G Collins, G McGovern; D McKibbon, A Carr, D O'Hanlon; P Turley, H Brown; M Poland, R Mallon, K McKernan; C McGovern, S Dornan, D O'Hare.

Referee: Conor Lane (Cork)

Leinster SHC quarter-finals 
Westmeath v Galway Cusack Park, Mullingar, 3.30

The two counties couldn’t come into this from very different perspectives. Galway, their winter of discontent behind them, went on to have a mediocre league campaign, which ended in relegation at the hands of a Cork team whose championship credentials were laid bare by Tipperary a fortnight ago.

Westmeath on the other hand topped the qualification group after defeating Offaly, Kerry and Carlow and have the added morale boost of their under-21s unprecedented success against Kilkenny.

Whereas the match practice and confidence as well as home advantage gives Michael Ryan’s side momentum, Galway can be expected to have too much for them despite any ring rust . Niall O’Brien and Brendan Murtagh scored three of Westmeath’s four goals the last time the counties met in so the visitors will be wary.

Last meeting: 2012 Leinster quarter-final, also Mullingar, Galway 5-19, Westmeath 4-12
Odds: Galway 1/50, Westmeath 12/1 and 33/1 the draw.
Just the ticket: Adult stand €20, terrace €10. Reductions for students and senior citizens. Juveniles €5 and €3. Concessions available for students and senior citizens. 
Verdict: Galway to win.

WESTMEATH: P Maloney; S Power, T Doyle, T Gallagher; A Craig, G Greville, A Clarke; C Boyle, E Price; A Devine, D McNicholas, R Greville; L Varley, B Murtagh, N O'Brien.

GALWAY (possible): C Callanan; J Coen, J Hanbury, P Mannion; A Harte, A Tuohy, D Burke; D Burke, P Brehony; C Whelan, N Burke, J Flynn; C Mannion, J Canning, J Flynn. 

Referee: Diarmuid Kirwan (Cork)

Offaly v Laois O'Connor Park, Tullamore, 3.30 In as much as Offaly have turned the tables on their neighbours since last year's shock first defeat in 43 years it's been a marginal process. Laois endured a nightmare league, finishing bottom of Division One B before getting their act together to defeat Westmeath in the relegation play-off.

Offaly were comfortable winners in the league when the teams last met. Shane Dooley shot 12 points and if the winning margin was just five, the winners had to soldier on with 14 men for virtually half the match after Joe O’Connor’s red card

It’s been a difficult year all around for Laois and Séamus Plunkett’s inclusion of five debutants is a reflection of the player exodus after last season. It hasn’t all been plain sailing for the home side either and their defeat by Kerry in the league at the reopening of St Brendan’s Park in Birr was demoralising and exacerbated by losing to Westmeath in the first of the preliminary matches. They had to dig out results against Carlow and then Kerry to secure a place in the championship draw.

That doggedness mightn’t have restored the team to where Eamon Kelly would want to be but it does give them the edge in this.

Last meeting: 2015 Leinster quarter-final, O'Moore Park, Portlaoise, Laois 0-29, Offaly 0-21.
Odds: Offaly 4/6, Laois 6/4 and 9/1 the draw.
Just the ticket: Adult stand €20, terrace €10. Reductions for students and senior citizens. Juveniles €5 and €3. Concessions available for students and senior citizens.
Verdict: Offaly to win.

OFFALY (possible): J Dempsey; C McDonald, D Shortt, P Rigney; D King, S Gardiner, D Mooney; S Ryan, P Camon; C Kiely, S Kinsella, P Murphy; S Dooley, J Mulrooney, J Bergin.

LAOIS: E Rowland; D Palmer, D Maher, C Healy; L Bergin, M Whelan, R Mullaney; P Purcell, C Stapleton; C Dwyer, N Foyle, S Maher; J Lennon, W Hyland, PJ Scully.