Tipperary to stay drinking a bit longer in the last-chance saloon

Similarities with last year abound. This weekend 12 months ago it was Kilkenny who stood between Tipperary and the redemption of a qualifier run, and they duly consigned Eamon O'Shea's team to oblivion. This time it's Galway who will tussle with Tipp to avoid the same, precipitous drop.

Like Kilkenny then, Galway have just lost a demoralising provincial semi-final replay, at the end of which they had accumulated sheaves of questions. They make three changes, bringing back Johnny Coen, Pádraig Brehony and Cathal Mannion, all of whom were discarded for last week’s replay, in place of Paul Killeen, Joseph Cooney and Niall Burke.

For Anthony Cunningham’s team to respond this evening will take a considerable feat of recovery, and they don’t have Kilkenny’s advantage of a home draw, instead having to travel to Thurles – a venue unpopular in Galway less because of a poor record there than because of the arduous cross-country journey on rickety roads.

Leaky defence

They arrive with a defence that’s been leaking three goals a match in the past fortnight and a vulnerability to pace that Tipperary’s full-forward duo of Séamus Callanan and the returning Lar Corbett will do their best to exploit on the broad acres of Semple Stadium.

Tipp also give a much anticipated debut to Ronan Maher, brother of full back Pádraic, at centrefield, where he will have every opportunity to showcase his undoubted talents.

It should be stressed at this point that the home side aren't exactly an answer to a maiden's prayer, either. Their chronic inability to see out close matches has cost them a league title and a place in next week's Munster final so far this year.

Their defence, for all that it has shaken off its "access all areas" reputation from the earlier stages of the league, coughed up killer goals against Limerick, and Galway, for all their woes, managed to stick five past Kilkenny in the semi-final.

There may also be disruption with reports that centre back Conor O’Mahony may have to be replaced by Paddy Stapleton because of a back injury.

This is the biggest match of the hurling year so far. For Tipperary to lose would be to find themselves five years distant from the 2010 All-Ireland, a prize that was supposed to be the symbol of a golden future.

Put another way, they are already more than half-way through the length of the previous famine – and defeat would confirm the team as the latest generation in the county to fail to reach its potential.

Galway’s demoralisation is worse in that they don’t even have sporadic All-Irelands to sustain them, just sporadic appearances in finals that have been followed with the unerring haplessness.

The key to delivering something has to be creating a context for Joe Canning to perform, something that nearly took the Liam MacCarthy across the Shannon two years ago.

Yet over the past fortnight Canning has stuttered from the substantial display of the drawn Kilkenny match – mitigated slightly by the spell at full forward that took him out of the traffic while Kilkenny were nearly winning the match – to last week’s constant struggle to find a position where he could effectively get to work.

If he fires this evening, Galway will more than likely win, but he needs constant involvement and consistent back-up and it’s hard to see where that will come from.

At the back, Galway have been undone by lack of concentration and a tendency to lose shape when driven at through the centre – as Patrick Maher is certain to do – and as a result get sniped at for points, as John O'Dwyer is capable of doing.

Low morale

Morale around Galway appears to be low and with some reason.

Since joining the Leinster championship the county's best season by some distance came two years ago when they won Leinster. Going through the qualifiers after defeat in the province has never been the prelude to a sustained recovery and the signs are that this year will be no different.

Tipperary on the other hand have a recent memory of rebuilding a season after losing their first match and although it would be jumping to massive conclusions to foresee a repeat of 2010, they can this evening at least achieve a first summer success for Eamon O’Shea and see where it takes them.