Darragh Ó Sé: Weather key in determining All-Ireland winners

Here we go again. The one thing that can't be said about Dublin and Mayo is that they throw up dull matches. We've got more than our pound of flesh out of these two teams over the past few years and now on Saturday night, they'll go again under lights. It might not feel like it at the minute – it never does with replays – but it is going to be some occasion.

As a player, you go into these games fixating on what happened in the drawn game. Managers will try second guess each other until the cows come home but you nearly always find the same guys matching up again.

They either broke even in the first match so they’re left on each other or one guy got the better of the other, in which case the guy who played well won’t be moved and the guy who played badly probably has enough credit in the bank to be given another chance.

So although people have been talking all this week and last week about what’s going to change for the replay, I can’t see either manager shaking it up too much.

Okay, the Dublin forwards didn't play well but I think guys like Paul Flynn and Bernard Brogan are the sort of players Jim Gavin feels he doesn't need to worry about. They've done it before and in the biggest game of the year, you'll often find managers deciding to trust that they'll do it again.

And anyway, the main reason they didn’t play well is that the Mayo defence were excellent. There’s a decent chance that Gavin could throw in Paul Mannion and Paddy Andrews, say, and still get the same result.

Andrews scored two quick points in the drawn game soon after he came on but he was helped by the Mayo defence not being sure straight away whether to pick him up or let him roam around as Ciarán Kilkenny had been doing.

Once they got their match-ups organised at half-time, Andrews didn’t have as big an impact.

The long and the short of it is that 90 per cent of the match-ups will be the same. So the main thing in the minds of those player this week is how they’re going to improve on what they did the last day. What went right? What went wrong? What did he do that surprised me? What did I let him away with? What am I going to do that he won’t expect on Saturday?

Between the drawn game and the replay in 2000, my big focus was to have a plan for Kevin Walsh.

We got off to a decent start in the drawn game around midfield but it turned Galway’s way when he came in off the bench about 10 minutes before half-time. He started winning ball and hopping off fellas and taking a bit of control back from us. By the end of the game, it was obvious that he was a key factor in Galway getting back into the game.

For the replay, he was my responsibility. We didn’t know whether he would start or if he would come on but whatever happened, I was going to manage the situation. How can I change my game to change his game? I told myself that I was going to be more aggressive with him.

I was going to run him and make him follow me. I didn’t adapt quickly enough in the first game when he came on so I swore that wasn’t going to happen again.

Checklist

That’s what players are thinking about this week. How much did you learn off your immediate marker? What can you take out of it? What can he take out of it? If you were in his position, how would you change it up?

They won’t spend every waking minute thinking about it but they will work through a checklist between now and the game to make sure they’re going out onto the pitch in the right frame of mind.

This is what separates teams on the biggest days. It’s a numbers game. How many of your guys are tuned in compared with how many of theirs. If you have five or six and they have 11 or 12 – sorry lads, it’s a long winter ahead. Other way around – party time.

So your job going into a replay like this is to be totally engaged from the first minute. Because every good thing you do, every small battle you win, it’s a mark against the guy you’re up against. And if it happens twice, three times, four times, doubt can start creeping into his mind. What the hell is going on here? Am I not tuned in? Am I not as prepared as I thought I was?

You have to play with no doubt in your mind. Once you start doubting yourself, you get distracted.

I played a Munster final one year against Clare where I missed the first three balls that came down between me and my man. John O’Keeffe was one of the selectors and he came running up the line to light a fire under me and he told me to get my head into the game. I waved him away and said I was fine.

And I was. I knew I was. Even though it probably looked from the outside that I was slow out of the gate, I could feel that I was tuned in. I only missed the first ball by inches. There was no doubt in my mind that I was on solid ground here. I was able to wave Johnno away and not be half-bluffing. I had done all the preparation and I was confident. That’s the frame of mind you want to be in as a player this Saturday.

As for game plans on either side, I don’t think you will see a huge amount of change. Both of them were a kick of a ball away from winning an All-Ireland the last day so there’s no big need for a radical overhaul. And anyway, that was an All-Ireland final they were playing in – it’s not like either side was holding anything back.

I don’t think they’ll do a whole pile of work on the pitch. You can walk guys through various scenarios but time is tight and the nights are drawing in. I don’t think they would have played a big A v B game last weekend.

They might have started one but I wouldn't be surprised if Stephen Rochford or Gavin blew the whistle after 20 minutes. You only need to get people handling the ball and kicking a few scores. More work will be done on minds than on bodies.

Basically, you want to improve on the good things and cut out the bad things. Mayo always have room to improve in attack. Nobody can question their bottle but they still don’t have enough guys who are reliable scorers. They got 15 points the last day. Will that be enough? If it’s a dry day, I wouldn’t say so.

So they need more.

The great thing about a drawn game is that now Rochford has video footage to show his players. Here’s what was happening when we were making hay. Here’s some of the mistakes the Dubs were making. Here’s how we were able pull so-and-so out of position to make room for a score.

After that, it's a matter of the players improving. Andy Moran had a decent game – he won good ball out in front and made use of it. But when the moment came, when the goal chance was there, he fluffed it. He snatched at the shot. He tried to burst the net when a cool, low finish was the way to go. He's been around long enough now not to make that mistake twice.

And of course, the same applies for Dublin. Some guys had an off-day shooting but that can happen. All any of them want is one ball the next day to put it right.

Positional changes

I'd imagine that if they change much, it will be positional. Diarmuid Connolly could go in at full-forward so that he is more dangerous when he gets on the ball and he isn't having to track Lee Keegan all the way back up the pitch.

Keegan has had the better of him in the last few games so this week Connolly has to be making himself a checklist of the things he is going to do to change that.

One thing he has in his favour is the fact that the referee will be keeping a close eye on them because it’s the clash everyone is talking about.

To my mind, Keegan did a brilliant, clean job on him within the rules the last day but there’s enough Dubs propaganda in the papers this week trying to get into the ref’s head. And why not? That’s all part of it.

Maurice Deegan might decide early on to lay down a marker as a result and a yellow card is always harder for a defender to carry than for a forward.

In the end, I’m going to sit on the fence a small bit. If it’s a dry day, Dublin should come through by four or five points purely because their scoring power exceeds Mayo’s. But if it’s wet underfoot and if the ball is slippy, scores will be hard to come by. In that scenario, I’d go with Mayo.