Further rain will favour Master Oats

IF a week in politics is a long time, the same might be said for racing. Had a heavy frost not cost the postponement of last Sunday's Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup, the going on the chase course would have been yielding at worse, and that would have suited Flashing Steel and Life Of A Lord. At the time of writing, the going at Leopardstown is much softer, and with heavy showers forecast over the weekend, underfoot conditions might not be any better tomorrow.

In the reasonable assumption of soft going, the mudlarks, Master Oats, Imperial Call and Monsieur Le Cure, will be favoured. While aware that a change of mind can be unlucky, I am not overly superstitious, and in view of the altered going which generally makes an enormous difference to most horses, I feel justified in switching allegiance from Flashing Steel to Master Oats.

It was said that Master Oats was just 75 per cent fit when finishing a 17 lengths third to One Man and Monsieur Le Cure in the King George VI Chase at Sandown last month. He certainly ran up to a stone and a half below his Gold Cup winning form last March when, on his favoured going, he fairly annihilated his rivals - including Monsieur Le Cure. Anyway, it was an infinitely better performance than on his seasonal debut at Chepstow a month earlier.

Master Oats will be much the better for that outing and while one cannot expect him to be at his absolute peak until Cheltenham, he should be forward enough to win this valuable chase, and certainly forward enough to reverse Sandown placings with Monsieur Le Cure. He is at last re united with Norman Williamson, who broke his leg in a fall at Sedgefield four months ago and who had his first ride back at Clonmel on Thursday.

Imperial Call is a young chaser of tremendous potential and did well to beat Strong Platinum over a distance far short of his best here a month ago. However, if the trip was against him, the ground was in his favour. Whereas Strong Platinum was not at all suited to the going and he gave away 12lb. It might be well to note that Imperial Call would receive 11lb from Flashing Steel in a handicap and much more from Master Oats.

Richard Dunwoody, who had the option of riding Imperial Call or Flashing Steel, elected for the latter on the grounds of experience. Flashing Steel is a high class chaser and one of a small but select band of horses to win an Irish Grand National under top weight. He is in good form and runs in his third Gold Cup next month, having finished fourth in 1994 and fallen last year.

Life Of A Lord is nicely handicapped in the Martell Grand National with 10st 11lb, but apparently will miss that race in favour of the Gold Cup should he finish there or thereabouts tomorrow.

He has improved greatly since joining Aidan O'Brien, for whom he won four times including the Galway Plate and Kerry National. He has not been seen for five months but is considered to be in good nick. For the record, he is rated just 2lb above Imperial Call.

Treble Bob, one of the toughest and most resolute horses in training, should win the WinElectric Novices Chase on this his second appearance over fences. He ran on stoutly to beat the highly regarded Minella Lad over this course and distance on his chasing debut and success tomorrow would see him a fancied contender for Cheltenham's Sun Alliance Chase.

Major Rumpus, who finished a two and a half length second behind Treble Bob over hurdles at Punchestown last April and who won recently over fences at Navan, is clearly the danger.

In the absence of leading novice hurdler Thats My Man, the Deloitte and Touche Novices' Hurdle is quite open. The Subbie can be fancied on his defeat of the subsequently successful Madison County when quite unfancied at Punchestown, over which course Night Nurse's half brother Mr Nightingale booked his passage for Cheltenham's Supreme Novice Hurdle - an event his trainer won last year with outsider Tourist Attraction.

I favour the Paddy Mullins trained Noble Thyne who bypassed a race at Punchestown and is held in the highest regard. He finished lame when favourite at Navan on his only previous outing over timber but won his two bumpers in great style. Hi Handsome can be considered, but we should see just how good the Cheltenham bound Noble Thyne is.

. The Turf Club view that the arrival of casinos in this country would have a detrimental effect on betting turnover on racing was given added ammunition when Scott Mordell, chief executive officer of Arlington International Racecourse, Chicago, spoke at a symposium organised by the Irish Thoroughbred Breeders' Association yesterday.

He said that racing's market share is dropping quickly in the US. In 1982, 22 cents of each gambling dollar went of horseracing. By 1994 the figure was seven cents. When racing was in direct competition with casinos, surveys had shown, racing's revenue declined by on average 40 per cent.

In Illinois total wagering has grown from 53 billion before casinos to $17 billion in 1995. This growth, he claimed has been fueled entirely by casinos, at the expense of racing and the lottery.