Establishing momentum the first objective

IN A decidedly non-vintage European season by no stretch of the imagination is this shaping up to be a vintage RBS Six Nations. The routine manner in which the Tri-Nations teams carved through the Northern Hemisphere teams in November merely emphasised as much. The European game needs a good championship, albeit purely amongst themselves, writes Gerry Thornley

Standing in Warren Gatland’s company prior to the World Cup draw in London last December, it was striking how Scots, English and Irish in turn congratulated him on Wales’ win over Australia two days before. “We needed that,” Gatland said to each in turn, and to a man they, in turn, responded: “No, we needed that.”

It was a moot point. That Welsh win constituted the first by a Six Nations’ team over a Tri-Nations side in 21 attempts since the World Cup. Whether it is because they have adapted to the ELVs better, or are simply more suited to them because of their superior athleticism, but the Southern Hemisphere have almost relegated the Six Nations to a division two competition.

Yet such is the history, enduring appeal and, most of all, compared to the Tri-Nations or even the World Cup, the competitiveness of the Six Nations that it almost doesn’t matter. In the Tri-Nations such is their craven pursuit of money that they have sanctioned three meetings per year. The Six Nations may not sustain such a high standard, but at least they only meet each other once, and hence it comes with far greater variety and unpredictability.

History suggests Wales will struggle to retain their crown, or at any rate repeat last year’s Grand Slam, given the last and only time they did so was in 1908/09. Even England have only achieved the feat twice and the French once. Indeed, some times second season syndrome hits with a vengeance, the most glaring example being Wales three season ago.

It’s something that Ireland can identify with, having followed up their shared Championship successes of 1983 and 1985 (when also winning the Triple Crown and drawing with France) with whitewashes in 1984 and 1986.

But it’s true that back-to-back Slams are a rarity, since 1991 the title has been retained by England three times (in 1992, 1996 and 2001) and France twice (1998 and 2007). Leaving all that aside, the November Tests are usually a very good barometer of form and likely performance.

Wales’ win was also a striking reward for their determination to keep taking on the best, for this was their sixth meeting with a Tri-Nations side since the last World Cup, at least two more than any of their Six Nations’ rivals. In 11 games under Gatland, Wales have suffered four defeats – three to South Africa and one to the All Blacks. It’s only by taking on the best that one can improve, which is what makes Ireland’s new approach towards the autumnal window next year all the more encouraging.

If Wales are the favourites, then arguably France and Ireland look their strongest challengers, with the customary unpredictability of the French making them as hard to forecast as ever. So it is that so much hinges on the events at Croke Park on Saturday.

Momentum, specifically generated by a win on the opening weekend, has been the tournament’s buzz word for years, but with good reason. Ireland could scarcely buy an opening win in the 1990s, but since 2001, they have won seven of their last eight opening matches, so back-boning consistent title challenges. It helped, mind, that four of those seven wins were against Italy.

Conceivably, were Ireland to maintain that sequence on Saturday, then with England to come at Croke Park they could take the winning momentum all the way to the finale against Wales in Cardiff. The one ingredient Wales have over Ireland, as things stand, is confidence. The post-World Cup hangover was still evident in Ireland’s performances last November, most alarmingly for the coaching and playing staff in the All Blacks’ surprisingly bloodless coup at Croke Park. But were they to get to Cardiff unbeaten, then presumably confidence would be restored.

A talented group of players need mostly to rediscover their willingness to take risks. A slightly deeper alignment and preparedness to shift the ball wide would help. Most of the other ingredients are there, and the team picked for Saturday’s opener has a dynamic ball-carrying back-row to supplement the Munster tight five.

Once more, though, true to maddening type, France could seemingly be anything. It’s worth recalling, though, they should have beaten Australia last November, and would have but for a procession of missed kicks by David Skrela. But for that, France would be viewed in a different light and would almost certainly be clear second favourites.

The November Tests showed their scrum and defence had been much strengthened. We also know that Les Bleus will be far more settled than they were last season, while the mantra coming from their camp is that Marc Lievrement and his coaches have been focusing heavily on their attacking game. He’s that kind of coach, heading that kind of coaching team. A philosophy stands high on their agenda.

Wales face tricky trips to Murrayfield, on Sunday, and Paris in round three, when the BBC has decreed that a Friday night, 9pm kick-off local time will be visited upon the Championship for the first time ever. It could be a title decider, or at any rate eliminator, as well. That’s not to say the Scots won’t take at least one scalp along the way, with both Wales and Ireland due in Murrayfield as well as the Italians, or that Martin Johnson might yet spark an English revival. The Italians are the only ones for whom a win or two ought to be deemed a success.

But that’s the beauty of the Six Nations. Full houses everywhere, millions watching on television, twists and turns along the way. Whatever the quality, the quantity is guaranteed.