England look better primed at home

RUGBY/England v Ireland: Ah yes, it's great to be Irish. A one-two-three in the Gold Cup on St Patrick's Day ought invariably be followed by a second Triple Crown in three years, and perhaps even a first Six Nations title.

On this weekend of all weekends, destiny demands it, and down the road in Twickenham our English hosts look just as vulnerable to an all-singing, all-dancing Irish invasion.

Alas, the odds must be against the title being on the agenda come the 5.30 kick-off, given Ireland will not make up the points difference if France win in Cardiff. Wales will assuredly sign off the brief Scott Johnson interregnum with a signature farewell, running it from everywhere. But they look the most brittle of all the six nations right now when games turn against them, and as the mercurial French have a clear sighting of the title that will assuredly happen at some juncture.

England look the more brittle here. Ireland have the greater momentum and confidence, a more settled side, and should be better prepared. Man for man, there's a compelling case for believing they have the better players too.

First up, of course, any rugby game is a physical, semi-legitimate fight, and given their need for redemption, England will assuredly ensure that will be the case today. Ireland are primed for this, and yesterday Brian O'Driscoll used past treks to Twickenham as a reference point. "If you look at the contrast in how we played in those games it's pretty evident you have to have an awful lot go right for you to win in Twickenham, which is exactly what happened two years ago.

"There were a lot of great individual performances but collectively, we stuck to our gameplan well. I think, as well, you're never going to beat England by more than a score; on a great day possibly by two. So you know it's going to be for 80 minutes and therefore it has to be an 80-minute performance."

If so, the desire to witness David Humphreys having a fond farewell is in part tempered by the track record of Irish replacements, especially him, for if he is introduced most likely the game will be up. If he isn't, it will suggest Ireland are very much alive, and all the better if Ronan O'Gara reproduces the excellence of his performance here two years ago. He is 10 points shy of Humphreys' Irish championship record of 73 points in one campaign.

England don't look as strong as two years ago, but they mightn't be as bad as they're being made out to be either. Most of the seven changes look for the best.

Tom Voyce is in better form than the out-of-sorts Josh Lewsey, whose poor positional play at fullback was cruelly exposed by the French. Stuart Abbot has one of the best sidesteps in the game, something that cannot be said of Mike Tindall.

The Leicester halves are not world beaters but one can imagine Andy Goode's lengthy boot playing the ball in behind the Irish wingers. They've sacrificed a bit of beef in their juggernaut tight five, but Lee Mears and Simon Shaw will assuredly improve their previously poor ball skills.

Although Andrew Sheridan ought to strengthen their scrum, he hasn't scaled the heights of the Lions tour or last autumn, and didn't unduly trouble John Hayes in Thomond Park.

Shaw yesterday spoke of the desire and confidence which the promoted replacements have brought to the English camp this week, as well as suggesting there's been more empowerment of players in training.

"We've gone back to basics a little bit. Things have been a little bit less complicated and everyone has fitted in well to the pattern. We've tried to simplify things. Rugby is a pretty simple game and we probably had a bit too much to think about in the last two games."

England's stale-looking defence has rarely looked worse than a week ago and it will be interesting to see if they emulate other Irish opponents by employing more of a blitz defence, but defensive coach Phil Larder reckons he will have had just one 40-minute session this week.

Having supposedly played all the rugby in Paris, or too much rugby at home to Scotland, somewhere between these clichés lies the truth. Ireland could win another tense, defensively dominant, territorial battle, with the pack fronting up; Paul O'Connell, Malcolm O'Kelly and Simon Easterby - all made airborne by the human JCB from Bruff - eating into the English lineout, O'Gara applying his radar and then kicking his goals.

England might even implode, but at Twickenham, where their formguide remains foreboding, somehow one doubts it. And you can't help but feel a game such as that is more likely to suit them.

Not only have Irish backs - with their Leinster galacticos and Geordan Murphy and Andrew Trimble - the greater ingenuity, but augmented by David Wallace they have better runners, better ball-handling skills, better footwork and sharper footballing wit.

That said, Ireland will have to get more tempo into their game than they've done to date - save for the fearless last half-hour in Paris. Maybe it was the teeming rain against Scotland, but apart from Murphy and O'Driscoll, Irish players didn't appear to be looking for offloads and just as critically, the supporting runners weren't either expecting them or holding on to them.

Yes, defences have been on top. But working a way through or around those well-organised masses is the challenge for coaches and players, perhaps for Ireland more than anyone, because the rewards appear to be the greatest for them. Imagine rolling on to the World Cup with another Triple Crown, or better still, a title in this manner? But Ireland need to get jiggy with it, to use their dancing feet, and not seek out torsos in white. For the one thing we know about this English team is that if the game becomes a mass of physical collisions, they'll lick their lips.

Ironically, they look better primed for a war of attrition.

Referee: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)

Overall head-to-head: Played 110, England 62 wins, Ireland 41 wins, 7 draws.

Last five meetings: 2005 - Ireland 19 England 13; 2004 - England 13 Ireland 19; 2003 - Ireland 6 England 42; 2002 - England 45 Ireland 11; 2001 - Ireland won 20 England 14.

Formguide: England - 47-13 v Wales (h); 31-16 v Italy (a); 12-18 v Scotland (a); 6-31 v France (a). Ireland - 26-16 v Italy (h); 31-43 v France (a); 31-5 v Wales (h); 15-9 v Scotland (h).

Odds (Paddy Powers): 4/9 England, 22/1 Draw, 7/4 Ireland. Handicap betting (=Ireland + 6pts) 10/11 England, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.

Forecast: England to win.