Dublin's big two set to dominate

At this time of year, all across Europe, only one thing in football is genuinely certain. The predictions business is becoming more boring.

Several of Europe's biggest leagues, England, Germany and Spain, are already being widely written off as foregone conclusions. A handful more are two, or if we're lucky, three-horse races. And of the top tier, only in Italy, where the dizzying amounts of money that change hands each summer seem to actually confuse things slightly, does the list of real contenders extend to perhaps five.

Here, the cash has always flowed less freely and so there has traditionally been the opportunity for a smaller club to achieve some glory even if, having won some silverware, its directors were forced retrospectively to acquaint themselves with the laws of economics.

It's not generally regarded as one of those rules that the rich get richer while the poor kick their heels and ponder what might have been but in football as in life, that's certainly tended to have been the way of it.

Never more so in these football crazy times when television's many gravity defying currencies have developed a knack for trickling up.

Irish clubs' ability to grab themselves a share of the pie has long been limited by their own amateurism as well as having an almost endearing ability, at least if you were looking on from afar, to lose in European competition to the most unimpressive of opposition. And then there is the overwhelming presence of our neighbour's game.

Factor three may be with us for some time yet but it's no coincidence that the first two are at last being tackled effectively at very much the same time.

The improved performances by Shelbourne and Bohemians over the past couple of years have not come out of the blue. Rather, they have been the result of, by Irish standards, enormous investments in facilities and players. After years of talking about it clubs here have really started to become more professional.

This year the two biggest Dublin outfits start as clear favourites to battle out the league title between them. If the trend in other countries is anything to go by then the pair have an opportunity to establish a dominance that will be hard to break. The process here is obviously far less advanced than elsewhere across the continent but it is nevertheless under way.

Europe is a key factor and growing more important every year, with Bohemians officials justifying the greatly increased wage bill at Dalymount Park - by the end of the season the club was reported to be spending just short of £15,000 a week on wages - on the £300,000 it made from German television when the club played Kaiserslautern.

If our best clubs continue to make the sort of progress shown over the past couple of season, then clearly the opportunities are there to reap the benefits. In the meantime, speculating to accumulate is sure to remain the order of the day.

In a number of other countries the income provided by involvement in European competitions has enabled particular clubs to move well ahead of the national packs. Just look at Maribor Teatnic in Slovenia or Rosenborg in Norway.

Here the danger is that the same will happen. So, as many of this season's premier division clubs are forced to concentrate on avoiding a relegation zone that may end up swallowing a third of the 12 teams, the likes of Cork, St Patrick's Athletic and, we can only hope, at least one other side, will be making a stab at closing the gap on the top two.

City look the best equipped although Bray have the potential to be there among the top sides again. St Patrick's could challenge at least for a European spot.

At the other end of the table the task for the newly-promoted sides looks almost ridiculously tough but Dundalk have spent heavily over the summer months and may just have improved sufficiently on last year's promotion-winning side to avoid the drop.

At this stage it's terribly difficult to see how the other newly-arrived outfit, Monaghan United, could possibly stay up but even assuming that Bobby Browne's side does find itself slightly out of its depth, there is going to be quite a scrap among the other relegation candidates, with budgetary cuts at UCD and Galway United further threatening their position.

UCD's Martin Moran feels that, with up to four sides to lose out, it would be no great surprise to see one of the big names struggle and if he's right then it's hard to imagine that the club in question won't be either Shamrock Rovers or Derry City.

The threat to Rovers tends to highlight the rather daft timing of the move to reduce the size of the division for the club is attempting to build facilities that will secure its long-term future. The impact of that first full season at Tallaght being played in the first division scarcely bears thinking about.

If the odds seem a little ominous for those hoping to stay in the premier division, though, spare a though for those trying to get out of the first. Dublin City is attempting to spend its way into the top flight in a season when there is just one automatic promotion place.

Blood as well as mud baths look set to mark this, the Eircom sponsored National League's last full season of winter football.