WALES v SOUTH AFRICA: WALES TEND to reserve their worst for South Africa, with just one victory in 22 meetings and a try count of 80-26 against, but this afternoon's encounter between the sides is about more than the men in red looking to put the record book straight.
The game has wider implications, as Wales will provide the bulk of the Lions' management team in South Africa next summer.
The home side suffered a blow yesterday when the inside-centre Gavin Henson succumbed to a long-standing Achilles problem. Tom Shanklin comes in at outside-centre and James Roberts switches to number 12. Wales will lose nothing in terms of power, but they will miss Henson's distribution and tactical kicking.
Wales are the Six Nations champions and South Africa won the World Cup last year, but the Springboks finished bottom of the Tri-Nations, losing to Australia and New Zealand at home (although they beat the All Blacks in Dunedin), and Wales followed up their Grand Slam by losing Tests in Bloemfontein and Pretoria.
South Africa's head coach, Peter de Villiers has brought his strongest squad to Europe. His pack today averages more than 43 caps a man and Bakkies Botha, the Blue Bulls lock, returns after missing the conclusion of the Tri-Nations with a knee injury. He is promising Wales a confrontational 80 minutes.
"I do not know how long I will last, but as long as I am on the field, Wales will feel my presence," he said. Botha will be packing down behind John Smit, the hooker and captain who has been shifted to tighthead prop, where he started his career but where he has hardly played this decade.
"As long as he keeps his back straight, he will have the rest of our weight behind him," said Botha.
Henson's withdrawal will make playing for position all the more important.
It is Wales's first match under the ELVs, but they anticipated them during the last Six Nations by adopting a kicking strategy which has now become de rigueur, booting long, keeping the ball in play and chasing hard.
They wore down opponents by playing attritional, in-your-face rugby and exploiting superior fitness in the final quarter of matches, when they rarely conceded but often scored.
Doing that in a Six Nations which saw France experimenting and England getting bogged down by the past was one thing, but South Africa, as they showed against Wales in the summer, have the capacity to absorb pressure and score in spurts.
Despite the presence of Shane Williams and Bryan Habana on the wings, it is likely to be an afternoon higher on ferocity than velocity. It will be a foretaste of next summer, and it is Wales who have to take the step up.
• Guardian Service
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