Derry v Tyrone, Clones, Sunday, 2.30 (Network 2)

On the basis that favourites do badly in this fixture, Derry must have a chance. The teams' respective form this year puts Tyrone in the driving seat. It wasn't surprising that Derry took it easy in the League; spring success for them has always proved incompatible with championship achievement. The sluggish win over Antrim didn't tell us much except to suggest that Derry still aren't punching their weight up front.

Tyrone's performance in dethroning Armagh was one of the best of the summer to date but - particularly under the new format - this was a campaign that the Ulster champions were always going to start slowly. Key considerations will be how much Tyrone learned from the win and how efficiently they've set behind them any sense of celebration.

There has been speculation about Peter Canavan's fitness and although he should be all right, the team looks better equipped than for a long time to cover for him. Unlike in the mid-1990s, Tyrone have more physical presence up front and, crucially, a good bench. Not many teams could replace an entire full-back line with the equanimity that Art McRory and Eugene McKenna managed this week.

Chris Lawn's absence has been acknowledged as leaving the team short of experience, but Colin Homes, although primarily a centre back, has deputised capably in the past.

Derry were unfortunate last year in that their two main performers carried injuries in the Ulster final and, despite an ankle injury scare, Anthony Tohill is fit to take his place at centrefield tomorrow. Otherwise Dermot Heaney's return as Tohill's partner was expected and strengthens the area. The full forward unit of Bradley, Muldoon and McBride is a strong and will test Tyrone's improvisation at the back, but Armagh showed last year - with the considerable assistance of Muldoon's injury - that they can be pressurised by crowding. Tyrone won't be found wanting in that regard either.

There is likely to be very little between the teams but it's hard not to fall for Tyrone's more impressive displays to date. Stronger, more assured and better supplied on the bench than last year, they can counteract Derry strengths, impose their own and reach a first final in five years.