Demolition derby day arrives

MUNSTER v LEINSTER:FOR THE Mother of All Irish Derbies three years ago, today we have the Granny of 'em all. A world record "club" crowd of 82,300 for a local shindig on our sceptered little isle. Amazing really, after which one or other of these friendly/bitter rivals will have the honour of attempting to complete an unprecedented Irish clean sweep of all the pots and pans on offer, as well as the Lions' garlands.

Indeed, about the only person not looking forward to it is coach Ian McGeechan, because, for the latest edition of car crash rugby we have what could well amount to a demolition derby. Two tribes go to war and all that. This could be a bare knuckle ride in many ways.

No one has harnessed perceived slights better over the decades than Munster, but, this time around, Leinster harbour all the grievances. Everybody is queuing up to present Munster with the bouquets and favouritism. Even in bravely reaching the stage of a tournament where all of France’s finest and all but one of England’s best failed to reach, Leinster seem to attract nothing but brickbats.

Former players of various vintages join the queue to criticise them, either individually or collectively, in a manner that old Munstermen would simply never countenance, least of all this week.

As of Thursday night, this can’t even be labelled European champions v Celtic champions, as such are Munster’s awesome powers that they have wrested the Magners League from Leinster without breaking sweat.

And with the Red Army coming to town again, after all the brouhaha over their invasion of three years ago, Leinster supporters have been implored to “be seen, be heard, be blue, believe”.

Come kick-off, Croker will be crackling, and it may even be set for a cracker.

Munster, we know, will turn up, but everything points to this being one of the most motivated Leinster teams ever to take to a rugby pitch, and there also seems a genuine fear within Munster’s ranks as to exactly which Leinster team will turn up.

As expected, the only change to the Munster team which grounded down the Ospreys and beat Leinster three weeks ago sees Peter Stringer come in for the stricken Tomás O’Leary, with Mike Prendergast promoted to the bench. It hardly weakens their hand.

For their part, Leinster have moved Isa Nacewa to fullback and restored Shane Horgan to the wing. It’s a daring move by coach Michael Cheika; Girvan Dempsey would be the more dependable, and Nacewa has started there only once this season, in the campaign opener away to Cardiff. Against that, Cheika presumably thinks Nacewa can offer more in terms of hitting the line, making breaks and offloading.

It will be interesting to see how often Luke Fitzgerald moves to fullback, arguably his best position in any event. And mindful that they will have to take risks at some juncture, perhaps Leinster may have a little licence to counter. In any event, Shane Horgan’s recall is not surprising, given his re-energised impact off the bench last week, his experience and appetite for a game such as this.

Horgan is one of only six survivors from the starting line-up of three years ago. In some instances, for sure, they look better for the significant transition in playing personnel under Cheika, particularly up front. One thinks of the trade-off in Leo Cullen and Rocky Elsom for Bryce Williams and Cameron Jowitt. Alas, CJ van der Linde was apparently biffing everyone in training on Tuesday before his troublesome toe injury resurfaced with the last scrum of the session.

Not only do Munster retain six of the pack (plus Marcus Horan and Denis Leamy) from three years ago, and the half-backs, the four changes in the backs – Lifeimi Mafi, Keith Earls, Doug Howlett and Paul Warwick – has helped them evolve brilliantly.

The footwork, eye for a gap and pace of that quartet have added more layers to their game, and they now have a greater capacity to play at a higher tempo and with much more width.

Whereas Leinster haven’t scored a try in their last three Euro outings, Munster have scored 15, and they have in Earls (six tries in seven outings) the form gamebreaker on the pitch.

If Leinster match the fire and brimstone of their work in contact and at the breakdown three weeks ago in Limerick with more accuracy in their lineout, Leinster have a big chance. And if Brian O’Driscoll, Elsom, Felipe Contepomi and Fitzgerald are on fire, then nearly all bets are off.

This leaves two more imponderables, Mal O’Kelly and Contepomi, for when they go well, Leinster invariably go well. Big Mal needs to roll back the years with a vintage display, with himself and Leo Cullen at least dominating Bernard Jackman’s throws and their restart receptions, because we can be certain Paul O’Connell and the Munster machine will establish that as their starting point.

More significant of all, perhaps, will be composure, decision-making and kicking at half-back, and here no analysis can be complete without specific reference to the Ronan O’Gara-Felipe Contepomi duel. O’Gara has been playing sublimely for Munster, who also have the sublime Paul Warwick as alternate playmaker, whereas Contepomi has had the demons before against Munster. His first place-kick will be a seminal moment, and Leinster ought to have a plan as to which range that should be within.

Ultimately, you know Munster will probably play well from one to 15, that they will be mentally strong, that they will know exactly what to do, and, most of all, have been doing it consistently whenever the chips are down. They come into this game on the back of 10 successive wins.

By comparison, there are just too many imponderables with Leinster.

But there’s a nagging, Woody Woodpecker figure which keeps repeating the words “local derby” and “one-off”.

Overall head-to-head(since 1946): Played 74, Munster 35 wins, 5 draws, Leinster 34 wins.

Betting(Paddy Power): 3/10 Munster, 20/1 Draw, 5/2 Leinster. Handicap odds (= Leinster + 7pts) 10/11 Munster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.

Forecast:Munster to win.