Cup imponderables add spice to run-in

Rugby Celtic LeagueThe euphoria that accompanies success in the Heineken European Cup will be diluted if either Leinster or Munster qualify as third seeds for next season's competition.

Ulster are top of the Celtic League so the chasing two must switch attention to domestic matters, starting tomorrow night with trips to Netherdale (Leinster) and Rodney Parade (Munster). The glamour of Europe can wait. Three weeks to be exact.

The IRFU belatedly gave relevance to the Celtic League last year by guaranteeing the final standings would dictate seedings for Europe.

The business end of the season is almost here and Ulster are three points clear of Leinster. Results over the coming weeks will determine what Irish team faces a leading English and French team in next season's European pool stages.

Ulster's focus is simple as the hype surrounding the European Cup semi-final begins to build. They have carried the can of third seeds for several campaigns, failing to make the quarter-finals since 1999, when they became the only Irish province to annex Europe.

Lest we forget, coaches Michael Cheika, Declan Kidney and Mark McCall are also chasing silverware.

The Edinburgh Gunners lie fourth, equal on 46 points with Munster, but they are expected to fade. Munster have two games in hand. The Cardiff Blues are fifth, a further five points adrift.

The 2004 champions, Llanelli Scarlets, are the likeliest team to disrupt Irish domination. Coached by Gareth Jenkins, the Scarlets are seventh on 36 points but have three games to make up after being cursed by the weather and progress in the Anglo-Welsh Cup. They play Wasps in the inaugural final of that tournament on Sunday at Twickenham.

The first catch-up game is at home to the Dragons on the same weekend as the European Cup semi-finals, while Ulster travel to Stradey Park on Friday, May 19th.

The final fixture to be rearranged is against Munster. A waterlogged Stradey Park denied Munster a vital warm-up ahead of the Perpignan game.

Tournament director David Jordan is optimistic the clubs will reach an arrangement to play between rounds 20 and 21.

"Unfortunately it will have to be a midweek game," said Jordan. "These things happen so it is not a question of punishing either team. Of course, the financial implications for Munster having to make another trip will be taken into consideration.

"It was just Sod's Law that the Scarlets ground was twice hit by weather conditions and they also progressed to the Powergen Cup final. We would be confident the clubs can sort out the rescheduling amicably and we will not have to get involved."

Munster have the most difficult run-in with four away games but the Llanelli problem goes away if they fail to overcome Leinster in the European semi-final.

If they can stay in contention until the final weekend (May 26th-28th), the Cardiff Blues come to Thomond Park in what would be a fitting farewell for Jonah Lomu before he returns to New Zealand.

Leinster are also on the road four times in their final six outings, while Ulster's campaign wraps up with back-to-back visits to Wales to face the Scarlets and last year's champions, the Neath-Swansea Ospreys.

Connacht can still conceivably qualify for the European Cup by reaching a play-off against Italian opposition - the route taken by Cardiff last season. To do so they must finish above the lowest-placed Welsh and Scottish teams.

There is hope. Four of their remaining five games are at home and their main rivals - the Ospreys, the Dragons and the Glasgow Warriors - must all visit the Sportsground.

There is also the advantage of every team being awarded eight points for their two-gap weeks. Leinster have already received this bonus but Ulster, Munster and Connacht have four points still to collect.

Confused? You should be.

CelticLeague: Irish provinces' run-in

Ulster

Apr 14th: v Glasgow (a) 5.30

May 5th: v Cardiff (h) 7.30

May 12th: v Borders (h) 7.30

May 19th: v Llanelli (a) 7.05

May 26th-28th: v Ospreys (a)

Leinster

Apr 7th: v Borders (a) 9.0

Apr 14th: v Llanelli (h) 7.10

Apr 28th-30th: v Ospreys (h)

May 5th: v Glasgow (a) 7.30

May 12th-14th: v Cardiff (a)

May 26th: v Edinburgh (a)

Munster

Apr 7th: v Dragons (a) 7.10

Apr 15th: v Edinburgh (h) 7.30

Apr 28th: v Borders (a) 7.30

May 5th-7th: v Ospreys (a)

May 26th-28th: v Cardiff (h)

TBC: v Llanelli (a)

Connacht

Apr 15th: v Dragons (h) 2.30

Apr 28th-30th: v Cardiff (a)

May 5th: Edinburgh (h) 6.30

May 12th: Ospreys (h) 6.30

May 26th: v Glasgow (h) 6.30.