Contenders face crucial Christmas

In football, Christmas is habitually the time of the season when hopes crystallise and fears become obsessions. The league programme reaches its halfway point and the real business of the FA Cup is about to get under way. It is the end of the beginning.

At the top of the Premiership, however, it is more a question of the championship contenders coming under starter's orders for the new year. In their case the European tournaments have either come and gone or been put on hold until March.

Realistically, Aston Villa, who have rarely been off the top since the end of August, can be overtaken during the holiday period only by Manchester United and Chelsea, who meet at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night in what is potentially the best of the Christmas fixtures. By then Villa could have doubled their lead.

Yet John Gregory's side, having narrowly survived Charlton's spirited if artless recovery at The Valley on Monday night, now face two more opponents in equal need of points for survival, Blackburn on Saturday and Sheffield Wednesday on Monday. A Christmas double for the leaders, therefore, is by no means a certainty and Tuesday night could find Chelsea and Manchester United each in a position to overtake them.

Gianluca Vialli's Chelsea may occasionally give the impression that they are performing in second gear but the speed at which the ball moves is the key to what Chelsea are really about.

Teams who run after the ball more than they run with it will usually find Vialli's side exhausting opposition, which could explain why Chelsea have won so many of their games this season with late goals. Before meeting United they face an awkward match away to Southampton and then at home to Forest on Monday. On St Stephen's Day, Forest go to Old Trafford hoping to bring about a surprise. Manchester United have not won for a month and doubts about their defending were hardly assuaged by last Saturday's home defeat against Middlesbrough.

If Alex Ferguson's team cannot beat Dave Bassett's spirited but limited Forest side, United will be in danger of drifting aimlessly into 1999.

United's conquerors, Middlesbrough will be seeking to close the gap as they take on Derby and Liverpool. Neither tie is a foregone conclusion, but they will at least hope to profit from Liverpool's familiar weaknesses.

The clubs just below Middlesbrough, all on 29 points, will see Christmas as a chance to catch up or, failing that, keep up with the top four. Leeds United remain the form team, despite Sunday's defeat at Arsenal, and matches against Newcastle and Wimbledon hold out the possibility of a perfect Christmas.

The prospect of Tony Adams making an early recovery from his back trouble should further brighten Arsenal's prospects as they entertain West Ham and then travel to Charlton.