Cautious English try not to draw too much trouble

Again three English teams will go into the draw for the second phase of the Champions League. Their survival is a matter for satisfaction rather than unbridled optimism.

The lesson of last spring, when the presence of Arsenal, Manchester United and Leeds United in the quarter-finals prompted eager speculation about an all-English finale, should guard against wild expectations now. Only Leeds made it to the semi-finals, the others having fallen to Valencia and Bayern Munich, and there Hector Cuper's Spanish side gave David O'Leary's team the shortest of shrifts.

Valencia are not around this time but in the Champions League the forces of Spain are still predominant. Real Mallorca may have gone but Real Madrid, Barcelona and Deportivo la Coruna all won their first-round groups, and Deportivo beat United twice.

At least Sir Alex Ferguson's team will be spared an immediate reacquaintance with their conquerors since today's draw will keep apart those who met in the opening phase. Clubs from the same country cannot be drawn together either so for the time being United, Liverpool and Arsenal will be able to go their separate ways.

While Manchester United and Arsenal were thankful to go through as group runners-up after struggling to find consistency Liverpool are entitled to approach the second round with equanimity. They won their group without being beaten and conceded only three goals.

As group winners with an impressive European pedigree Liverpool will hope to avoid some of the biggest names, yet the Champions League has reached a point where the old lines of distinction have become blurred. Not so long ago, for example, it would have been hard to envisage Portugal getting two teams to the second round without one of them being Benfica or Sporting Lisbon.

Clearly Manchester United and particularly Arsenal need to improve if they are to do better than last season, or even as well. The decision to sell Jaap Stam to Lazio will continue to be the albatross around Ferguson's neck so long as his defence leaks goals at the present rate.

The fact that Lazio finished bottom of their first-round group might suggest United have had the better of the bargain but with the 35-year-old Laurent Blanc so helpless against pace, Ferguson's side will go into the second round like a boxer with a cut eye. At least their scoring potential is always likely to offset defensive shortcomings.

The refusal of Dennis Bergkamp to fly anywhere is now less serious than Arsenal's lingering inability to take a higher proportion of chances created, a habit which often keeps alive the hopes of inferior opponents.

Equally chronic is Arsenal's inability to keep 11 men on the field. They began the first round with a red card for Ashley Cole and ended it with another for Oleg Luzhny, the 37th since Wenger took charge five years ago.

On present form the chances of teams from Spain and Portugal must be rated more highly than English chances. And then there will always be Bayern Munich.