All change, and Galway to see off rest

This year's Bank of Ireland football championship features the most significant changes in format since county selections superseded county champions over 80 years ago. The dilution of the knockout format already began with the acceptance of the new hurling championship five years ago but this summer will see far further reaching change in football.

Giving teams a guarantee of more than one match per championship was a long overdue reform and the only pity is that for many counties change will be merely a matter of guaranteeing two matches.

There has to be mild concern at how the GAA in general will respond. Not just the officials, but the broader membership can be fairly set in their ways. Four years ago the knockout stages of the National Hurling League were played throughout the summer on sunny days with firm pitches, but the experiment had to be dropped as the public were indifferent.

Consider as well the attitude of many counties to initiatives that offer them a more realistic competitive context, such as the original FDC proposals last year. Even the B football competition elicited responses which oscillated between great enthusiasm and unconcealed dismissiveness.

So it will be interesting to monitor how teams and their supporters react to the Saturday qualifier series starting next month with the first repechage for teams defeated in the provincial first rounds. Reality will sink in around the third round or quarter-final stages that this is the All-Ireland series. Before that, there may be problems among the more demoralised units who see the new arrangement as merely entailing one more defeat. Already one intercounty manager has spoken out - on the basis of the sanctity of knockout - against the system that will extend his team's championship season.

On the field the championship is going to be extraordinarily open. The new format will reintroduce a number of wild cards along the way, and as the hurling championship has proved, teams learn a great deal from championship defeat.

Last year the two most gifted teams in the country fought out the All-Ireland. Kerry and Galway had to fight hard for what they got and either could have lost in their respective semi-finals. Now they will have to face potentially formidable challenges at an earlier stage. This has to impact on how teams train and prepare.

It also impacts on predictions. Previously it was a matter of narrowing down to four provincial champions. This year it will be possible to have four counties from the same province in the All-Ireland semifinals. For instance the Tyrone or Armagh teams who lose next week's Ulster first round may be entirely different propositions by in July and August.

The view here is that the provincial champions will be Galway, Kerry, Kildare and Derry. Despite the league revelations, Galway remain the best side in Connacht and will benefit from a more competitive province. Kerry, despite another All-Ireland hangover and the loss of Liam Hassett, are too far ahead of Cork. Derry lost last year's Ulster final by a point although their in-form forward Enda Muldoon was hampered by injury. If footand-mouth doesn't bite, they can go one better.

Leinster has the most evenly distributed standard in years. Stories that Meath are out of sorts aren't new; they approached the 1996 first round against Carlow with trepidation before going on to win the All-Ireland. But the loss of John McDermott would be a major blow. Dublin, Offaly, Laois and Westmeath look short of the material necessary to win the title. This leaves Kildare. Still unconvincing up front, they nonetheless have the necessary cohesion and drive.

Overall? Of the above four, Galway have the best look, with the return of Ja Fallon and Tomas Mannion. But anything could happen and football may emulate hurling and come up with All-Ireland champions who haven't won their province.