A few signs that the gap is closing

When Vitas Gerulaitis finally beat Bjorn Borg at the 18th time of asking, he was asked at the start of his post-match press conference how it felt. The New Yorker said self-deprecatingly: "Hey, nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 18 times in a row."

Well, the likelihood of anyone eclipsing New Zealand's 17 consecutive Test wins has virtually vanished with the Springboks' defeat to England on Saturday. Ye Gods, did it have to be England? They'll be unbearable now. Yesterday's English papers should have come with a government health warning.

Still, think of the flip side. Last year's Twickenham thriller with the world's then best side, Sean Fitzpatrick's All Blacks, reactivated England's innate superiority complex, and look what happened? A French team which had been on the receiving end of a record home defeat against the Springboks as they bade adieu to Parc des Princes duly stuffed the English in Stade de France.

In fairness, Clive Woodward and Lawrence Dallaglio were at pains to keep their boots nailed to the floorboards on Saturday. No doubt mindful of what happened a year ago, and the English penchant for treating one swallow as a summer, they struck a realistic note. Consistency is what's required, not the odd, one-off big performance.

And when it comes to consistency, the Southern Hemisphere still rule the roost. This was the first defeat for one of their superpowers in three years and 40 Tests against teams from the Five Nations.

Last autumn's grandly entitled War of the Worlds was more slaughter of the innocents than global warfare. In 10 collisions, the Five Nations' representatives managed just two draws - England against Australia and New Zealand - with a points aggregate of 393-142 and a try tally of 5014 in favour of the Big Three.

The same was true last summer, though admittedly the Home Countries sent out weakened sides. The Southern Hemisphere countries won all nine meetings, scoring 442 points and conceding 72, with a try count of 65-8.

The past month's head-to-heads yielded one win and five defeats for the Five Nations, with the Big Three outscoring them by 141 points to 88, and by 15 tries to seven.

Nonetheless, even those stats suggest there is some evidence that the gap is closing, and here the manner of England's win over the Springboks was fitting. The Five Nations and the Home Countries especially have become much stronger defensively.

This may in part be attributed to the strong Kiwi influence amongst the Home Countries - Warren Gatland here, Graham Henry in Wales and John Mitchell in England, while Scotland's Jim Telfer is a Kiwi disciple.

With Ireland and Scotland, it may also be partly the result of increased professionalism. Certainly, in the last month, the Celts haven't capitulated late in the matches.

In any event, there is now a far greater ability and concentration on committing fewer players to rucks, re-aligning more quickly and in numbers, and then making more ball-and-all tackles. The old ankle-enveloping, "textbook tackle" is as commonplace as the Dodo.

In mitigation of the performances of Australia and South Africa, fatigue seemed to play a big part. The Wallabies arrived after a relatively arduous World Cup qualifying pool, and the Springboks came after an intense Currie Cup game; all on top of the Super 12 and the Tri-Nations in 11month campaigns.

For the Springboks, fatigue was compounded by their contractual system. Their leading players are contracted to both their unions and, as Test players, to SARFU, and the former have a degree of autonomy which entitles them to demand that their players begin training again in January for February's kick-off to the Super 12.

It is far from ideal, as Nick Mallett suggested during his squad's British and Irish tour. Aside from leaving South Africa's players potentially more prone to injury, there must be a real fear that the likes of Mark Andrews (a pale imitation of his normal abrasive self on this tour), Gary Teichmann or even Henry Honiball won't last to the World Cup next October.

Mallett must be casting envious glances towards John Hart, whose All Blacks have been rested for an additional month.

When asked who would be the Boks' main threat to their World Cup crown, Mallett was unusually cryptic. "The All Blacks, without any doubt." This despite the break-up of an All Blacks' team that peaked last year, and has just come off the worst run of results in the country's history.

However, as Mallett knows, it could be a timely kick up the rear for the All Blacks, and the last month's rest may have seen them steal a march on their Southern Hemisphere rivals. They weren't that far away from the Springboks and the Wallabies in the tri-Nations anyway, especially in Durban. They will probably be a better team come next summer and October. The All Blacks also peaked a year or two prematurely before the 1995 World Cup. It could be that the Springboks have just done likewise. Against that, this is an All Blacks team in transition, which probably needs an extended run together.

Woodward, for his part, reckoned any of six countries could win next year's World Cup. This presumably includes Wales (in deference to Henry's apparent messianic qualities and their "home" draw), and the suggestion may not be as fanciful as it first seems.

Think back to the 1991 World Cup - and some strikingly similar parallels in the respective "draws"; England did, after all, reach the final. Indeed, had they stuck to their much-criticised, 10-man game, rather than suddenly flinging the ball around Twickenham, they might even have beaten an Australian side running on empty a little and relying on their famed defence.

The coming Five Nations championship may provide a more interesting end in itself than was the case last season, as well as vital preparation for the World Cup. Where do Ireland stand in all of this? Almost guaranteed now to be too tough to beat, but they find it equally tough to win, and so need a win or two in the Five Nations to bolster morale before an arduous summer tour of Australia.

The pack, though still more could be asked of it, can compete with anyone. But as the depressing performances of the Combined Provinces and Irish A sides underlined, the options amongst the backs are, well, like the back-line itself - limited.

The Connacht halves will assuredly play better, and perhaps Ciaran Scally, Tom Tierney or Shane Horgan will emerge in the next year. But time is running out, and given the unashamed recruitment by the rival Celts of Southern Hemisphere players such as Shane Howarth, Mathew Proudfoot and the Leslies, it was interesting to note Old Belvedere's newest recruit, Jonathan Davies, make the following observation.

"Ireland must add some sparkle to this department even if they have to have a trawl around the world to check on the Irish ancestry of some good backs."