Jeffrey Donaldson could have claimed EU victory in March, but now he must choose

In his new book Witty Putdowns and Clever Insults, Former Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Peter Robinson quotes Margaret Thatcher’s warning to a Conservative colleague that she was “extraordinarily patient”, provided she got her way in the end.

Robinson has drawn on a life-long interest in the language of political sparring for his work, but it is his comments about the options facing one of his successors as DUP leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, that have attracted attention this week.

Wanting something and being prepared to risk all to get it are two different things, however. For most observers, including most of those within his own party, Donaldson wants to see the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive back in action, no matter his reservations about the Windsor Framework.

However, he has not been “extraordinarily patient” in dealing with his internal opponents, the majority of whom are in the party’s senior ranks holding places in Westminster, such as Sammy Wilson, or Ian Paisley jnr, among others. Instead, he has been weak.

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“Jeffrey hates confrontation, he hates being in conflict with people, but he is dealing with people not just in the DUP itself who hate not just the Windsor Framework, but the Good Friday Agreement and the idea of a Sinn Féin first minister, too,” said one quarter on Monday.

Robinson offered the snooker analogy: “Unionists and loyalists, by and large, think that they should clear the table in one visit. That’s not always possible. What you want to do is to make sure that you have a sufficient score to be able to clear the table when you next go to it,” he told BBC Ulster’s Talkback programme.

Unionists needed to recognise they would not get all they wanted from the British government in negotiations over post-Brexit trading arrangements, Robinson said.

The timing of Robinson’s public utterances has been the subject of much debate in Belfast. Is it part of a carefully co-ordinated plan, or simply the fruits of a book tour, which has seen him appear on radio stations in Great Britain, too?

In truth, it is both, though Robinson is unlikely to have acted without Donaldson’s knowledge, or agreement, while it is believed the former has been kept in the loop on the progress of the interminable talks between London and DUP, and not just by the DUP.

Robinson has appeared on the scene previously, given that he was one of those appointed to a panel of eight by Donaldson to gauge reaction to the Windsor Framework after it was agreed between the European Union and the United Kingdom in late March.

Little more has been heard about the body since. The realities of the issues have not and will not change. The framework will not be altered, regardless of whether Stormont comes back or whether Northern Ireland faces hybrid direct rule in the new year.

Frankly, Brussels has moved on, and even Dublin would struggle to get sustained attention there now.

[ Devolved government in North may be restored within next few weeks, O’Neill believes ]

The agreement produced Brussels concessions, ones previously rejected as impossible, though they did not go far enough to soothe unionist concerns – ones too often blithely dismissed in some quarters, even if they were inevitable consequences of Brexit – about Northern Ireland being separated from the UK’s own internal market.

Donaldson could have chosen to claim victory in March if he had accepted then, however unwillingly, that matters had been taken as far as they could. Dublin, Brussels and London would have joined in a chorus of approval of the DUP’s negotiating strength.

Instead, the moment passed. Though still demanding changes, the best that Donaldson is likely to win now is some form of oversight group to investigate Northern Irish business concerns about the operation of border checks, and pledge speedy action to resolve problems as they arise.

Even if he gets that, the political arithmetic within his own ranks will not change. The majority of the party’s Westminster team, bar, one can guess, Jim Shannon, Gavin Robinson and Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart, will remain opposed.

Putting aside the merits of the arguments for or against the Windsor Framework, the lustre enjoyed by DUP MPs was reduced during the days when Stormont was up and running, so many of them have little encouragement to want it back. The same point covers Nigel Dodds in the House of Lords.

So, what are Donaldson’s options? He can challenge the so-called “big beasts”. His predecessor David Trimble did so frequently in the 1990s and won, even though every time, his opponents, such as Rev Martin Smyth and Willie Ross, believed wrongly that they had the numbers to defeat him.

[ UK government accused of ‘economic blackmail’ as NI is excluded from levelling up funding ]

Donaldson would win, too, if only he would push matters to a decision, those frustrated by him argue – and the fundamentals of the issues facing him will not change whether he decides now on his final course of action, or in the new year.

However, younger DUP politicians – members of the Stormont Assembly who have suffered a pay cut and who want to get back in, and councillors who want to have direct ministerial relationships – must first be convinced he will not bow in the face of opposition from senior ranks.

Donaldson’s leadership is not at risk, since there is little sign that any of the big beasts actually want his job. For now, the choice is between imperfect devolution and a hybrid form of direct rule even more unpalatable to unionists. One day soon, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, he will have to choose.