THE ALLEGATION by Zimbabwe’s justice minister Patrick Chinamasa yesterday that Botswana is giving military training to youth groups of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) brings a new and venomous note to Zimbabwe’s unfolding disaster.
Botswana immediately denied the charge, repeating that it opposes the use of force, despite its vehement opposition to Robert Mugabe’s regime. But more and more African voices are being heard advocating his forcible overthrow following the complete impasse reached in powersharing negotiations with MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Archbishop Desmond Tutu called for that last week, as did Kenyan prime minister Raila Odinga. But Zimbabwe’s immediate neighbours are against the use of force, even though they increasingly support tougher sanctions. Moves at the United Nations Security Council this week may bring sanctions closer.
Cholera has now joined hyperinflation, mass unemployment, food shortages and continuing police oppression against opposition activists in the growing catalogue of Zimbabwe’s disasters. The disease, caused by excrement-contaminated water, has killed 800 people and hit 16,000 more and has spread to South Africa. Despite the efforts made to share power, talks between Mugabe and Tsvangirai have broken down over control of the police and security forces. The accusation about Botswana training MDC youths is already under investigation by the Southern African Development Community; its latest articulation could be an excuse to declare a state of emergency which would allow a more comprehensive counter-attack against the opposition.
What to do about Zimbabwe is now becoming a more urgent matter on the international political agenda – and deservedly so. The most significant factor is a growing determination among African states that political change there should be brought about by co-ordinated international action. That is likely to involve graduated sanctions along with mounting political pressure, rather than military force. More effort is now being made to find a mechanism that would allow Mr Mugabe and other key figures step down quietly with guarantees of exemption from prosecution, rather than fruitlessly pursuing a powersharing deal. A transitional non-partisan government could be appointed with emergency international aid and elections for a successor government arranged within 18 months or two years. Zimbabwe’s humanitarian catastrophe demands such attention.