Working The Agreement

The results of the European elections in Northern Ireland make it imperative for the two governments and the parties supporting…

The results of the European elections in Northern Ireland make it imperative for the two governments and the parties supporting the Belfast Agreement to find a a workable formula to enable the executive and the North/South structures to be established by the end of the month. There can be no delay beyond that.

The return of the three outgoing MEPs would suggest, on the face of it, that nothing much has changed since the agreement was democratically endorsed by the electorate, north and south, just over a year ago. The electorate delivered a 70:30 verdict again in support of pro-agreement candidates in the latest contest which was always going to be interpreted as another referendum on the accord. Such a superficial reading of the results, however, is of little practical help, least of all to those parties willing to take the political risks to facilitate a new beginning in Northern politics.

For the fifth European election in a row, the DUP leader, Dr Paisley, topped the poll with a massive 192,762 first preference votes. This represents an increase of almost 30,000 on his position in 1994. His 28.40 per cent share of the vote was just fractionally below the 29 per cent anti-agreement vote among unionists in last year's referendum. The SDLP leader, Mr Hume, dramatically increased his vote by a proportion similar to Dr Paisley's but failed to achieve his cherished ambition to top the poll.

The most surprising performance in the elections was recorded by Sinn Fein's chairman, Mr McLaughlin, who more than doubled his party's first preference share to 117,643. He came in just under 2,000 votes behind the Ulster Unionist Party's outgoing MEP, Mr Jim Nicholson. The controversy over the bodies of "the disappeared" did not hinder his fortunes.

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The decline in Mr Nicholson's vote - he dropped a full six percentage points over his 1994 position - and the close proximity of Sinn Fein to the main unionist party, present a disturbing message from voters. Taking an overview of all the candidates' performance, the message is that while support for pro-agreement candidates is still 70:30, unionist support now breaks down 60:40 against the agreement.

The First Minister, Mr Trimble, can claim that a win is a win in politics, in the North like anywhere else. He is right. But if the European elections were, indeed, a true reflection of support and confidence in the Belfast Agreement rather than a personality contest, his task in bringing the agreement to the point of implementation - the imperative at this time - is not helped by the election results.

There are two weeks to go to the final deadline of June 30th to reach agreement on the setting up of the executive and the North/South structures. It is now imperative for Mr Blair, who sets the scene for the next round of intensive negotiations today, and for Mr Ahern, to complete the task they have set themselves in order to make the agreement work.