Will time and hope be enough to pull Fine Gael out of the doldrums?

Next Sunday is the 80th anniversary of the founding of Cumann na nGaedheal, the forerunner of Fine Gael

Next Sunday is the 80th anniversary of the founding of Cumann na nGaedheal, the forerunner of Fine Gael. In the first of two articles Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent, takes a close look at Fine Gael as the party strives under its new leadership to revive the glory days.

Eighty years ago this month, pro-Treaty politicians formed Cumann na nGaedheal in the dark final days of the Civil War. In often perilous circumstances, it led the fledgling State during its first decade.

Preoccupied by government, however, the party's early leaders failed to build the foundations needed to thrive in the coming decades, an uphill struggle against Fianna Fáil.

In 1932, Cumann na nGaedheal peacefully transferred power to Fianna Fáil after defeat in the general election and entered opposition. The following year the National Centre Party was formed, under the leadership of Frank McDermott and James Dillon, son of John Dillon, leader of the Irish Parliamentary Party.

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In September 1933 Cumann na nGaedheal, the Centre Party and National Guard merged to form Fine Gael, with the head of the Blueshirts, Gen Eoin O'Duffy as leader, while Mr W.T. Cosgrave led its complement in the Dáil.

From then until 1948, Fine Gael languished on the opposition benches.

Left with the legacy of that past and the mistakes of more recent years, their successors in Fine Gael today struggle to cope with last year's election result when the political careers of senior figures such as Alan Dukes and Nora Owen, indeed a whole leadership tier, were ended by the electorate.

Evoking images of slaughter and the loss of a generation, the trauma caused by the disappearance of 23 Dáil seats left FG in mourning: uncertain of the future; uncertain if there would even be a future.

Today, however, there are some grounds, if not for optimism, then at least hope. "The patient's condition has improved. It has gone from 'dead' to 'critical'," said one rural Fine Gael TD, only half-jokingly.

Following his election last June as party leader, Enda Kenny established a Strategic Review Group under Frank Flannery, who has long served in good times and bad in Fine Gael's backrooms.

By October, Flannery's report had landed on Kenny's desk. It made for unpleasant reading. Fine Gael was traditional, boring, badly run, out of touch and in danger of disappearing off the scene altogether unless radical action was taken.

Since then the party has been implementing the 28 Flannery recommendations, including those demanding more efficient structure inside Leinster House and reorganisation in Dublin. Some were introduced quickly. Others, such as finding a new spokesman, have taken more time. All bar two are now in train.

Sitting in Leinster House, Enda Kenny insists that progress is being made, but acknowledges that it is not yet visible to the public at large and pleads for time. "There is a sense of urgency amongst our own supporters that we provide a credible alternative," he concedes.

For years, Fine Gael struggled to get into power. In the glory days Dr Garret FitzGerald came within five seats of Fianna Fáil in 1982 with 39.2 per cent of the first-preference vote. Since then, bar the fillip offered by the accidental Rainbow years in power, Fine Gael has been on a steadily declining curve.

Left without many of its usual heavyweights after last year's carnage, Enda Kenny opted for youth by appointing Waterford TD, John Deasy, and Laois-Offaly TD, Olwyn Enright, to senior frontbench positions.

The strategy has, so far, only partly worked. The new arrivals, who would normally have had five years to learn the ropes of Dáil politics, have been thrust into the foreground.

On occasion, they have been left blinking in the glare of the stage lights, as Deasy found recently during a Dáil debate on crime when he went head-to-head and lost with the Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell.

"In the normal course, people like Olwyn would not have been heard of for a while. In a year, they would have had something to say. They are being asked to be expert in their brief and show a lifetime of political skills on their first day," said one senior and sympathetic Fine Gael politician.

The majority of the front bench are not, however, newcomers. Most have been around for a decade and more. Yet they have been little more effective in highlighting the Government's weaknesses.

And questions have not just been directed at Kenny's lieutenants, but at Kenny himself. Does the Mayo man, who is disliked by none, have the instincts that could one day make him Taoiseach?

So far, the jury remains out. In some respects he is doing better among his colleagues and party supporters because they had such limited expectations of him.

His Dáil performance has been fumbling and unsure, but it is getting steadily better. Last month, opposing Shannon's availability to the United States for the Iraqi war in the absence of United Nations sanction, he carved out political space for the first time, even if some in the ranks, including the former leader, Michael Noonan, failed to stand beside him.

"The greatest fear that anybody working for a political party has is that it will not take a position on something. Too often, with alarming frequency, in fact, we have adopted a non-position. This was a position," said one former party official.

And Kenny leads a parliamentary party that is as united as any the party has had for decades, if only because it simply cannot bear another round of the bloodletting that crippled Alan Dukes, John Bruton and Michael Noonan, each in their turn.

"A lot of the leadership protagonists are gone. An awful lot of the people who voted for Michael Noonan are gone. The new bloods were not around to be part of it. We are united because there is no other option but to be united," said one now closely involved in the reorganisation.

The bonding process, which still has a novelty factor for those used to internecine war, has been helped by Kenny's personality. He is warm, likeable, witty. "He's an includer, not an excluder," said one MEP.

"There is a very definite warmth for Kenny. He is a good speaker. There are those who say that we should have more substance. Our past leaders were not good at the touchy-feely stuff. He is," said one source.

Pointing to the different atmosphere inside the party's Leinster House rooms, another commented: "Before now, there were divisions between the various floors: between officials and TDs, between officials and officials."

Driven by the party's newly appointed and highly regarded Political Director, Gerry Naughten, a former civil servant, the situation has improved.

It has also been helped by Kenny's own personality. "Enda is a totally different person to Michael Noonan. He is a more balanced person than Michael.

"Michael was paranoid. He saw enemies everywhere. He would spend hours interpreting what people had said, 'Was this loyal? Was that disloyal?'"said one, close to both leaders' operations.

Yet another said: "The past leaders were tougher than Enda is. John Bruton used to shout and roar, but he did not always get his way. It wasn't necessarily more effective. Alan Dukes shafted half the party, and got shafted."

Typifying the general mood, one prominent figure said: "I am not saying that Enda is going to be responsible for the major re-emergence of our fortunes, but he has impressed a lot of people because of the fact that he is a nice guy."

For now, Kenny's colleagues are prepared to dismiss criticisms of his Dáil performances: "Does it matter that he is not a heavyweight? He is not a fool either.

"Michael Noonan was a heavyweight, but the public did not like him. The Dáil did not matter for Bertie Ahern when he was leader of the opposition. And he was pretty awful at the job," said one.

On the downside, Kenny can introduce levity at inappropriate moments. "He needs to show better judgment. People must take him seriously," said one former TD.

Publicly supportive, the Cork East TD, David Stanton, defended Kenny.

"BertieAhern will try and swamp Enda with statistics. No matter what question is asked, he will pull the sheet of paper, duck and weave and get away with it.

"The focus should be on the reply rather than the guy asking the question," said Stanton earnestly.

Modestly, Kenny acknowledges that he is not there yet, but he insists, in the manner of Iarnród Eireann, that he is getting there.

"I would say that the public are not yet fully impressed. That is my challenge. I will give them every opportunity to be impressed. I hope I can rise to that challenge," he commented.

Although the Dáil is not the forum it was, traditional political wisdom points back to the rise to fame of the former Labour leader, Dick Spring, in the late 1980s and early 1990s on the back of good performances there.

Kenny seems to believe, however, that the Dáil is important, rather than vital, to his chances of being taken seriously by an electorate that has yet to pay him much attention. Indeed, he has been advised by some influential people within the party to concentrate his efforts outside the Dáil.

But the recent use by the Labour leader, Pat Rabbitte, of a letter from Beaumont Hospital in Dublin warning of cutbacks and bed closures, which stung the Taoiseach out of his daily recital of statistics, shows the power of the Dáil chamber when properly used.

"He was rattled by that. And he will get rattled by a whole load more of these things. Because people out there in sectors that are going to be cut back are getting very sore. There is information streaming in to us," said Kenny.

If so, Fine Gael has up to now shown little ability to use such information to its advantage. "That is what we have to harden up on. We have to concentrate on that," Kenny conceded.

"Every frontbencher has to have their 'hits'. You say to me, 'Well, you haven't knocked out Bertie Ahern.' Well, nobody else has either. The fact of the matter is that he does get rattled.

"Some assume that you can go in like Mike Tyson and swing away and hit nothing. That is not what this is about. There is a way of playing every player. In his case it is not about swinging widely at his jaw," he declared.

Significantly, however, he has answered doubters who believed he did not have the stamina and desire for the endless grind of constituency visits that is the lot of an opposition party leader.

Instead, he has taken to the task with a fury. "I did three 21-hour days in the last week," he said.

"There were questions put up to him on that score. In fairness, he has answered them. No doubt at all about that," said one observer.

Earlier this month, Kenny sought to move Fine Gael's reorganisation on when he demanded a battle plan from frontbenchers for the next year "with a single-page overview and eight or nine bullet points".

Describing the learning curve as "vertical", the Cork South Central TD, Simon Coveney, acknowledges that the public does not yet see the FG front bench as a cabinet-in-waiting, or part of one.

"The public wants a change right now, but they are not crying out for Fine Gael. They don't see FG putting that alternative forward. That is quite understandable. It is still only months from the election," he said.

However, Kenny is promising more, and soon. "They have had their 10 months of learning. We will now carry the fight to the country," he declared confidently.

So far, the front bench has not been "as strong as I want it to be". "There has been a learning curve for some, taking on a brief, learning the mechanics, learning how to oppose. I want that to increase substantially.

"I said at the beginning that we would forgive mistakes here. I have encouraged good vigorous discourse within the party. I have allowed them to have their opinions. But we will be battening down the hatches," said the FG leader, who claims that the party's Nice Treaty campaign holds major lessons.

Unusually, he put four former leaders, particularly FitzGerald, Dukes and Bruton, out in front. Indeed, he appointed Bruton to head the party's referendum campaign.

"It was a very strong message from Fine Gael that we always stand in the national interest, that we are a European party. We put the quartet out front because of the importance of having the referendum passed.

"A half- million more voted. That was, in part, due to the cohesion of the Fine Gael effort. We wanted every scrap of support.

"To have three former leaders, along with a former European commissioner in Peter Sutherland, visibly conducting meetings in the interests of Ireland, on behalf of Fine Gael, was great."

The promotion of his predecessors caused confusion inside and outside the party, even if his generosity was admired. "There is only one leader. You can't confuse the brand like that," said one critic.

Kenny disagrees. "Here, you had a quartet with vast experience and name recognition. Why should they not give of that in the interests of the party and in the interests of the country?

"If I tried to do that, I would not have the image of Garret FitzGerald, of John Bruton, of Alan Dukes, or of Peter Sutherland. It was only right and proper in a team sense to call on that support. The lesson learned out of that was that people want to see us campaign."

Since then, Fine Gael has campaigned briefly against the Government's abolition of the first-time buyers' grant, gathering the names of 70,000 signatories for a petition.

"That was comparatively easy. We are going to do that on third-level fees. I think that is the straw that will break the Government's back if they come in with that."

Indeed, Fine Gael's failure to date to make this issue its own borders on the careless, given that it is one that speaks directly to its voter heartland: "the voters who cope", in the words of one political scientist.

One leading Munster party member said: "We should have made far more out of it. I had to remortgage my house to send the kids to college. The middle-income groups - as distinct from those we used to call the middle class - get hit for everything. They are too rich to be poor and too poor to be rich. They are the people we should be speaking to, and for."

However, Kenny rejects accusations that Fine Gael has been slow off the blocks. "We did the business at the time of the Union of Students of Ireland campaigns. Olwyn has been out there. It is more appropriate now when the Government is starting to harden up on the next estimates. With the looseness inside Government now, anything could happen here. That campaign will strengthen."

Though Kenny has made significant progress in binding the wounds left by the election and years of internal strife, it is far from clear that he has a vision for the way ahead, despite his protestations.

The political standards of the Celtic Tiger are behind us, he believes. "There is a different yearning out there. The younger generation is there to be inspired in a way than it has not been for the last 15 years when money and material gain was the order of the day.

"They are looking for meaning and effect from politics. There is a ferocious sense of frustration at the way in which the effectiveness of government has collapsed," he said.

Up to now, Fine Gael has not turned this into a political credo that can be sold on the doorsteps in the 2004 local elections, offering "real solutions rather than symbolic gestures", as the Flannery report demands.

But it has time. It has a plan. Even more importantly, it has hope.