The unthinkable, it appears, could be about to happen. Mr David Trimble could fail to be elected as First Minister by the Northern Ireland Assembly today after securing what unionists of all parties have demanded for years: an act of IRA decommissioning verified by the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD). It is possible, at the time of writing, that unionist self-destruction could come to pass.
Mr Trimble received the endorsement of a huge majority of the Ulster Unionist Executive, the ruling body of the party, last Saturday to put his name forward for re-election as First Minister. It was backed up with a motion instructing all 28 Assembly members of the Ulster Unionist Party to vote for his re- instatement. That motion was specifically targeted to bring two dissident MLAs, Ms Pauline Armitage and Mr Peter Weir, under the party whip. The full line-up of the 28 UUP members, plus the support of the two Progressive Unionist Party members, Mr Billy Hutchinson and Mr David Ervine, was required to produce the 30 votes necessary to give Mr Trimble a victory on unionist votes.
If words mean anything in politics - sometimes they do and sometimes they don't when it comes right to the wire - that unionist majority is withering away. Ms Armitage made positive sounds after her "productive" meeting with the IICD on Wednesday. But she announced yesterday that she would vote against Mr Trimble. And if logic means anything in politics - a proposition that is also doubtful at such times - Mr Weir will join her. At a minimum, he may abstain. Writing in this newspaper today, he says that the ability of the IRA, the IICD and the British Government to meet his genuine concerns about decommissioning will be the key determinant in how he and others will vote. He does not state explicitly, however, that he will vote against Mr Trimble.
One way or another, Mr Trimble will face a difficult task to counteract the seepage of support threatened by his two MLAs today. The proceedings will begin with a wrangle over the cross-community Womans' Coalition attempt to re-designate its Assembly members. The proposal is that Ms Monica McWilliams would be re-designated as a nationalist and Ms Jane Morrice as a unionist. And even that extra vote, unless it is accompanied by abstentions on the other side, may not be enough to save Mr Trimble.
The unthinkable will happen if Ms Armitage and Mr Weir proceed to act like turkeys voting for Christmas. The IRA will be let off the hook of further decommissioning. The unionists will be blamed for bringing the house down. With all of the political contortions in the book, it is difficult to see how devolved government with majority cross-community support could continue. It will be back to the old days of unionist isolation. As the Ulster Unionist Party leader who brought about a start to decommissioning, Mr Trimble deserves better from his own side now.