NEARLY SEVEN months into his presidency, and after an exceptionally busy and able start, Barack Obama is encountering problems that have faced most of his 43 predecessors. Although the US economy has avoided a second great depression because of huge state intervention, the sheer cost of the deficits involved now looms much larger and he cannot assume employment and output growth will revive as before. He is having real problems in congress with his healthcare reforms, a vital part of his domestic programme. And his hyper-active foreign policy initiatives are now being shaped into the more difficult task of realisation.
Accordingly, Mr Obama’s approval ratings are down from their initial stellar highs, but they still compare favourably with those of George Bush and Bill Clinton in their opening months. His inspirational appeal during his election campaign created large public expectations at home and abroad which inevitably are being judged against his record in office. There is more material now on which to make that assessment. He has been lucky and knows how to divert attention away from gaffes and mistakes, as well as to admit making them.
Not least, he has been fortunate in the ineptitude and consequent disarray of his Republican opponents. They now sense a possible revival through sustained and raucous attacks on Mr Obama’s healthcare reforms. Following a difficult passage through Congress, egged on by his questionable desire to have them passed rapidly in time for final approval next month, the issue has been ignited by conservative radio shows and activists at town-hall meetings shouting down its defenders. Mr Obama has joined the fray, attacking special interests and rejecting wild allegations about the legislation. He insists his aim of extending self-financing health insurance to the 46 million US citizens who currently do not have it is feasible and sustainable. He makes a good case, but may have intervened too late to get the legislation carried this year. If that is so he will be much weakened going into congressional elections in 2010.
It is a salutary reminder that reforming presidents in the US system have limited power and must persuade Congress if they are to succeed. That in turn affects their electoral popularity. Mr Obama is emerging as a pragmatic reformer, well able to adjust his policies as he goes along. It remains to be seen how well he orchestrates his overall objectives and maintains his broad public following as he does that. The economic crisis certainly constrains the domestic social reform agenda on which he set such store. Statistics on deficit spending show it has soared, with public debt set to rise from 44 per cent in 2008 to 87 per cent by 2020 because of bank rescues, public investments and the economic stimulus package.
Mr Obama needs to show a clear way through this emergency response and avoid being trapped in a combination of inflation and economic stagnation over the next three years if he is to attain a second term. That would display leadership of a high order, together with an ability to take advantage of improved international economic and political conditions.