There is trouble brewing over the supply of electricity and, as the likelihood of power blackouts increases, the Minister for Public Enterprise, Mrs O'Rourke, has been taking evasive political action. As the effective owner of the ESB, she was placed in an invidious position: driven by EU directives into deregulating the electricity market; fearful of litigation over abuse of its dominant position by would-be competitors and reluctant to sanction the building of new generating plants. The result has been an administrative shambles that could yet constrain the State's economic growth.
The possibility of serious power cuts and electricity blackouts in 2001 and 2002 should not have come as a surprise to either the Minister or her Department. In April of 1997, Professor John FitzGerald of the Economic and Social Research Institute accurately predicted the present surge in electricity demand arising from rapid economic growth. And, for the past year and more, the Industrial Development Authority has complained through official channels that some parts of the country were virtual "no-go areas" for new industry because of the inadequacy of power supplies. But the Minister, toying with the idea of privatising the ESB, realised that a major plant-building programme would inhibit outside competition. And earlier this year she received legal advice that private power companies might sue if the go-ahead was given for a new 400 megawatt gas-fired generating station at Ringsend, to be built by an ESB/ Statoil consortium. At the same time, Cement Roadstone Holdings and Viridiam sought permission for a 400 megawatt plant at Huntstown, Co. Dublin.
Last week's decision by Mrs O'Rourke to call a press conference and set down the terms on which she was prepared to sanction the ESB/Statoil project appears to have served a dual purpose. On the one hand, it accorded with legal advice that competitors should be advised the ESB would be forced to dispose of its interest in the new plant if it abused its dominant position. On the other, the ESB was being implicitly blamed for any delays in the construction process. It accorded with the Minister's general behaviour.
But political prevarication is not the only reason why demand may exceed supply in the coming years. Public objections and delays in the hearing of planning appeals have seriously delayed construction schedules.
Later today, the board of the ESB will meet to consider the terms the Minister has set for the construction of the Dublin plant. And, given Mrs O'Rourke's position as titular owner, the outcome seems a foregone conclusion. Of far greater importance will be the board's response - early in the new year - to the Minister's suggestion that it consider the possibility of privatisation or a strategic partnership. Competition, deregulation and new generating plants will inevitably force the closure of inefficient ESB stations, some of which are 40 years old. Difficult political decisions lie ahead. Let us hope the Minister will confront them openly.