An under-pressure Government has limped into the summer holiday period in the hope that it will be able to revive its flagging fortunes during an extended Dáil adjournment. That is what usually happens when the opposition parties are denied the opportunity of holding a government to account in parliament for three long months. But, in its ninth year of office, this Coalition has shown signs of dysfunction on many fronts. Its resilience is waning.
In contrast, the alternative government - Fine Gael, the Labour Party and possibly the Green Party - has maintained a consistent advantage in opinion poll support over Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats in recent months. There is a turning of the tide. A broad strategy - offering basic policies and a change in government - has been adopted by Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte. The latest manifestation of that approach involved an implicit vote of no confidence in the Government during the week, the itemisation of a long list of policy failures and a demand for an early general election.
Taoiseach Bertie Ahern was right when he said the Opposition parties would be shocked if he took their advice and dissolved the Dáil. But not nearly as shocked as some of his own backbenchers who have been in open revolt because of the unwillingness of Ministers to consult them and to implement vote-winning programmes. At the same time, the PDs have been trying to repair the damage caused to the party by the knowledge of the dysfunctional relationship between their leaders.
Time is the great ally for a government under pressure. The public's memory is short. Past failures and political scandals can be submerged in the razzmatazz of an election campaign, particularly if good news is being presented to the electorate by the government. In the same way, it is vital for opposition parties to engage in long-term planning and policy preparation to ensure they stay focused when an election is called.
The coming general election campaign is already taking shape. In the Dáil, Fine Gael and the Labour Party concentrated on Government failures in the areas of crime, healthcare, education, road safety and housing. In other words, they will appeal to disaffected voters and concentrate on negative quality-of-life issues. In response, the Taoiseach drew attention to the strength of the economy, employment creation, higher standards of living and a low level of Exchequer debt. He, rightly, accused the alternative government of a deficit on agreed policies.
It was fairly typical Dáil skirmishing for any summer recess. But, it was notable that Mr Ahern was unusually short-tempered. The fear is that maturing SSIA accounts may not provide the desired uplift in an election year. Ministers themselves are as tired as the Government. But, the biggest mistake they would make would be to produce a December budget with excessive spending as their election platform.