Perhaps in the choreography of recent days, it may be possible to discern positive signals of a pending breakthrough in Northern Ireland. Reports of internal debates within the republican movement on the decommissioning of weapons continue to filter through. The unionists have chosen to move slowly towards their disengagement from the Executive, rather than peremptorily pulling the plug. Language on all sides has perhaps been more restrained than in the past. At times, indeed, it has been almost conciliatory.
What is certain is that without a significant move on decommissioning, Mr Trimble and his Ministers will not resume their functions in the Executive. It is not a matter on which the unionist leader has any room to manoeuvre at this point. His base of support within his own ranks has been so eroded that he is in charge in name only. In a post-decommissioning scenario that could change. But at this point, given the opportunity, the rank and file of the Ulster Unionists would cast him aside.
The Secretary of State, Dr John Reid, has said clearly that he will not suspend the institutions temporarily as was done on two previous occasions. The Belfast Agreement will go into review and direct rule will be imposed in little more than two weeks - at the outset - if unionists and Sinn FΘin cannot find the common ground to continue sharing power in the Executive.
Sinn FΘin may huff and puff about the unionists collapsing the institutions. But they have comprehensively lost the argument. There are no dispassionate observers who do not pin responsibility on the republicans' failure to honour the Belfast Agreement's requirements on the decommissioning of arms. One by one, republicans have lost the sympathy of Mr Ahern's Government, of Mr Blair, of the US administration and a host of would-be apologists in the American political system. There is no more patience, no more indulgence for Sinn FΘin wordplay.
The shadow world between paramilitarism and legitimate politics, in which Sinn FΘin operated, ended on September 11th. Its strategists know this - they are not fools. If there is any way forward now for the republican movement, it must be to fulfil its obligations to the people of Ireland who voted for the Belfast Agreement, for new democratic institutions and for a sharing of power and responsibility across the communities in Northern Ireland. That way forward can only be accessible in the context of decommissioning.
It may be that republican thinking envisages decommissioning down the road - having allowed the institutions to fall. Sinn FΘin perhaps believes it could then claim the high moral ground and demand the restoration of democracy. But it would be foolish to count on the electorate's memory being so short. There is much evidence to suggest that after the arrests in Colombia and the terrorism of September 11th, the shine has gone off Sinn FΘin. If the IRA does not decommission in time now to save the Belfast Agreement, it will learn in time that it has overplayed its hand.