Tim Bale: National interest may be best served by FF in opposition

Well this is awkward. Elections are supposed to solve problems, not create them. But this one has made things really complicated.

Forming a government may well take longer than everyone would like. It may also look very different to what we’re used to. But that may be no bad thing.

If predicting who will eventually team up with who is what you’re into, the numbers can be a good guide. Whatever the chemistry, it’s normally trumped by the maths. Sometimes there really is only one way to go, even if those involved don’t like it.

But sometimes isn't every time. There are occasions when parties' long term interests, and even the best interests of the country, are best served by forgoing rather than grabbing the chance of office. That might be the case for Fianna Fáil, and Ireland, right now.

Country and western legend Kenny Rogers is not generally known as a political analyst, but he put it best. In one of his biggest hits, The Gambler, he swaps a slug of whiskey for some advice from a hardened pro. The advice, as readers of a certain age may recall, goes: "you've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run."

Obviously – no giggling at the back, please – a saloon full of drunken card sharps and Dáil Éireann are two very different places. But the same logic applies.

The temptation, especially when everyone’s telling you that there’s only one feasible option, and even suggesting that not to take it is somehow a dereliction of duty, is always to go for it. But sometimes it’s worth thinking twice.

On the face of it, Fianna Fáil is in a far stronger position than many thought was possible when the election campaign began. It has more than doubled its delegation in the Dáil. Fine Gael has lost loads more seats than most people expected, and Sinn Féin has won far fewer than some feared.

Any lingering doubts about Micheál Martin’s leadership have – for a while at least – been laid to rest, whereas the whispers about Enda Kenny’s are getting louder and louder.

There would appear to be greater support across the electorate as a whole for a more centrist approach to the country’s difficulties than for the austerity-will-get-you-everywhere approach pursued by Kenny and Co over the last five years.

Need to modernise

But let’s turn around the telescope for a moment. Sure, Fianna Fáil did better than even its most optimistic projections. But better doesn’t mean brilliantly. A first-preference vote share of around 24 per cent indicates permission to be heard, not a mandate to govern.

That just six of the party’s 44 TDs are women should perhaps give some pause for thought, especially to an organisation that knows it needs to modernise.

And although the exit polls understated its support, they nevertheless suggest the party still has some way to go to persuade younger voters, and those living in urban areas, to take it seriously again.

Just as importantly, perhaps, that same exit polling suggested that fewer than one in seven voters wanted to see Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael govern together.

That, and the fact that the party made it pretty clear before the election that it wasn’t up for such a deal, should also weigh heavily. Such a coalition might turn out to be anything but grand – especially for Fianna Fáil.

Spurious

Talk of entering into one in “the national interest” is understandable, but ultimately spurious.

For one thing, politics is meant to operate like Adam Smith’s market and its “invisible hand”, with collective benefits arising incidentally out of parties acting in their own interest.

For another, where is it written that it is in the national interest for a party that has only just begun to rebuild trust with voters to engineer a situation in which anti-system opponents can spend the next five years taking populist potshots at largely well-intentioned mainstream politicians for putting together a supposedly establishment stitch-up?

Arguably it might be more in the national interest to give minority government a try. In that case Fianna Fáil would at least need to consider whether, given the fact that, broadly speaking, there are more left-wing that right-wing parties in the Dáil, it might be better off trying to lead such a government rather than help keep one led by Fine Gael – the obvious loser in this election – in office.

Of course, whoever was to lead, tough decisions would still need to be taken. But, as countries in Scandinavia, many of which manage perfectly well with minority governments, have demonstrated time and time again, those decisions are often better when achieved through consensus rather than rammed through the legislature by an over-mighty executive.

Which brings us neatly to Micheál Martin’s call for the Dáil to think about political reform before the parties get down to sorting out exactly who gets what, when and how.

Lemonade

Only a fool would imagine it’s entirely selfless. But that doesn’t make it a bad idea. Ireland, like the UK, has one of the weakest parliaments in

Europe

when it comes to its power to force governments to think again and hold them to account.

Yes, voters have given politicians a lemon as well as a raspberry at this election. But that affords those same politicians, and maybe Fianna Fáil especially, a once-in-a-generation chance to make lemonade. They should seriously consider taking it. Tim Bale is professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London and author of The Conservative Party from Thatcher to Cameron and Five Year Mission: The Labour Party under Ed Miliband. He addressed the Fianna Fáil Ardfheis in 2012 and outlined 12 steps for recovery for parties that had suffered debilitating defeats in an election.