The war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has taken a decisive turn with the Ethiopian army capture of Barentu, a town abandoned by its Eritrean defenders, in a major setback on its western front. Hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced as the Ethiopian army penetrates Eritrean territory proper - well beyond the disputed area at the centre of the war - and there is a big flow of Eritrean refugees into Sudan. The fighting has already disrupted food aid to an estimated 200,000 people in areas affected by drought and famine conditions and, as the war proceeds, it looks as if it could have a much more serious impact on that emergency effort.
This is a tragedy in several major respects. The war diverts desperately needed resources from development and famine relief in both states. They have been stockpiling arms for several years, so that the ban on further arms deliveries imposed by the Security Council will not have any immediate effect. The conflict over a small area of disputed territory has roots deep in the tangled history of Eritrea's struggle for independence, achieved in 1993. It has been greatly exacerbated by the failure of many peace efforts, the most recent one brokered by Algeria, leading to accusations of mendacity and bad faith.
Ethiopia has considerable justification for its claim that it was attacked during the last round of fighting in 1998. But the sheer disproportion of population and resources between the two states easily turns this into a very unequal contest indeed. It may suit Ethiopian leaders to use the war in classical fashion as a diversion from domestic failures and discontents and it is clearly very popular. But it could all too easily turn into a punitive assault on Eritrea's existence as an independent state. Although such an objective is strenuously denied by Ethiopia, there is no doubt its military aim is to inflict a decisive defeat by emasculating Eritrea's military capacity.
The war is certainly being conducted on an extravagant canvass and scale. Reports of extensive trenches and bunkers remind observers of the first World War in Europe, while conscription in Eritrea has closed schools and universities. There is no shortage of weapons, supplied by the United States, Russia, Italy, Israel and China as well as the flourishing arms suppliers of eastern Europe. The Security Council's arms embargo contains a limit of one year for the first time and is contingent on progress being made towards a peaceful settlement.
This Ethiopian breakthrough could set the scene for a rapid negotiation. Arguments about whether a ceasefire should come before an agreement, have dogged negotiations. With a view to restoring the urgent famine relief programme, international pressure must be exerted to bring both to a speedy conclusion. That is the least to be done for the millions of people endangered by drought, famine and war.