It comes as something of a surprise that there are six candidates lined up to replace Mr John Major as leader of Britain's Conservative Party, given the extent of the party's defeat in the general election. The Tories managed to get just 31 per cent of the vote, its worst showing since 1832. The Labour Party's majority runs to 179, a gap which most commentators believe will take two elections to overturn. The next leader of the Tories will have an unenviable task, the next leader but one might face a brighter prospect.
The contest isn't anything like the clash of the heavyweights that had been eagerly anticipated. Mr Michael Portillo, the darling of the right, lost his seat and so (less surprisingly) did Mr Malcolm Rifkind; both would have been candidates of consequence, especially Mr Portillo. An attack of angina removed Mr Michael Heseltine from the stage and took much of the colour out of the contest. Mrs Gillian Shephard, a competent Education and Employment Secretary, decided against joining the fray, so the contest will be male only. And a pretty dull contest it is turning out to be, except for Mr Michael Howard's troubles.
Mr Howard, a former Home Secretary of much controversy, has easily the best organised campaign and some heavy hitters aboard his team. He is Eurosceptic (which helps) but pragmatic. He is a doughty Commons performer but not voter friendly. Neither, it seems, is he always colleague friendly. Two of his erstwhile junior ministers in the Home Office seem determined to do him down, especially the former prisons minister, Ms Ann Widdecombe, who accuses him of misleading the Commons. She campaigns against him with the fervour of a zealot.
Mr Howard's troubles may shift some of his support to Mr Peter Lilly who is also benefiting from the Portillo absence. He possesses much intelligence, decency and integrity but he suffers from being the least well known of the candidates despite holding high Cabinet office. Diffidence could be his middle name. The surprise in the pack is Mr William Hague, only 36 and only two years in Cabinet. He has so much time on his side and so little experience it says something for his `spin doctors' that he has managed to catapult himself into the front ranks of the contest.
The favourite to top the first ballot will be Mr Ken Clarke. Unequivocally proEuropean (which, on balance, is not an advantage), he is, in terms of intellect, image and temperament, easily the best candidate. He is a Commons heavyweight and the candidate that the Labour Party would least like to succeed but he might be the person least able to unite the party.
Mr Clarke is also the most popular candidate among rank and file Tory party members but they, of course, don't have a vote. Neither do Tory MEPs or Peers. This time it could be different and the franchise might be extended beyond Tory MPs. On Wednesday, the backbench 1922 Committee will elect a new chairman and executive. It runs the contest and might adopt proposals for an electoral college which have already been drawn up. The Tory party is not noted for devotion to the finer points of democracy however, such as proportional representation.