The rumble of conflict moves FG to shift its ground

Mark Hennessy: Though most Western parliaments have had substantial debates on Iraq weeks ago, the Government only allowed the…

Mark Hennessy: Though most Western parliaments have had substantial debates on Iraq weeks ago, the Government only allowed the Dáil to join in on Thursday - after the bombs had begun to fall on Baghdad.

The six hours of debate - or, more accurately, the trading of pre-prepared speeches - lacked the passion, atmosphere and, for the most part, the gravitas of two House of Commons debates this month and last. Nevertheless, it may in time prove to be telling, since it carried interesting signals about the shifting plates that lie underneath the current political landscape.

For the Fine Gael leader, Mr Enda Kenny, the occasion marked the first time he has tried to impose his will upon his own battered ranks as he stoutly took the side of the United Nations. Cleverly constructed, most of his speech dissected the Government's stand to date, though with each cut he brought himself into conflict with his own more conservative wing. His strategy creates a definite Fine Gael space on the map, though, clearly, some have doubts: two senior figures, the former leader, Mr Michael Noonan, and Mr Jim O'Keeffe did not vote with him, nor did Clare TD, Mr Pat Breen.

Even though he did not advertise his stand, Mr O'Keeffe, when questioned, was at least prepared to acknowledge that he has "reservations" about Fine Gael's policy. On the other hand, Mr Noonan, along with Deputy Breen, was not present in the House; according to some of their colleagues, the pair had to rush to catch the 5.20 p.m. Limerick train.

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Because of St Patrick's Day absentees, the Government required six "pairs" - an arrangement whereby its voting tally is not cut because ministers are away - from Fine Gael for the first Dáil vote. However, a seventh was required on the vote on the Government's own motion later to cover a Minister of State, Mr Brian Lenihan of Fianna Fáil, who had to deal with Seanad business.

Mr Breen was paired. The Fine Gael whip, Mr Bernard Durkan, insists Mr Noonan was authorised by him to leave the chamber, though this is not the same as being paired. Only in the Dáil a wet week, Mr Breen wants to get elected again, and so he clearly heard the tune being played by his constituency's pro-Shannon lobby. Excusing him through a pairing arrangement avoided unnecessary trouble. Given the importance of the occasion for him, Mr Kenny could reasonably have expected that Mr Noonan would have made it his business to have stayed for the second vote.

Still, the situation could have been worse for the leader. Waterford TD Mr John Deasy was not in the chamber because he is still on a visit to the US.

Even Mr Kenny's friends acknowledge that he has not shone in Dáil debates. In delivery terms, Thursday was little better. But his speech's coherence, particularly during its second half, was his best to date. Strong on the rule of domestic and international law, strong on social justice, strong on the UN, it is a route map for the Kenny era. The only question now is whether any of that will matter to votes. So far, he evidently has the vast majority of TDs behind him. Party insiders insist the margin amongst the grassroots is even higher - despite their usual US leanings.

In a classic example of ward politics, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, ensured that none of his backbenchers went AWOL after he relentlessly ploughed through telephone calls to keep his lines steady. During the contacts, Mr Ahern, in his usual way at times such as these, let drop hints that he is not happy with some of his current first and second ministerial teams. The message for the ambitious was clear: live horse, and you may one day eat grass from the back of a ministerial Merc. The message has been so often played that few, if any, believe it. Nevertheless, politics is the triumph of optimism over experience, so there was little point irritating Mr Ahern for little reward on an issue that could embarrass him in high places.

Ever the pragmatists, the majority of Fianna Fáil TDs probably needed little persuasion that the country's best interests are best served by staying on the good side of Uncle Sam. However, a few, such as Fianna Fáil's Dublin North Central TD Mr Sean Haughey, had some tussle with their consciences before they entered the "Tá" voting lobby. "The moral thing to do in respect of the granting of landing and over-flight facilities at Shannon Airport would be to stop the use of the airport by the US forces. However, I regret very much that this is not possible at this time. The Government is obliged to take into account the national self-interest and other realities," he said, with little enthusiasm.

Voicing the fears of more than a few TDs interested in foreign policy, the Dún Laoghaire TD Mr Barry Andrews worried not that the US would fail in Iraq, but rather that it would win easily.

President Bush was intent on "getting his own way regardless of any international agreements. I fear that the attack on Iraq is the first of many," said Mr Andrews.

In reply, the Government emphasised, in a manner that bordered upon the crude, Ireland's own selfish interest in keeping both Shannon Airport and Irish airspace open to American forces.

Nevertheless, the Government is convinced that the public mood on the issue has changed since last month's anti-war marches, when up to 100,000 people took to the streets of Dublin. Time will tell.