Voters' faith in the Seville declarations on neutrality depends on their trust in politicians to honour promises, writes Tom Clonan
There has been much debate on the implications the Nice Treaty may have for Ireland's neutrality. The European Rapid Reaction Force (ERRF) has been cited by critics of the treaty as a de facto EU army, ready, willing and able to conduct offensive operations beyond Europe's borders.
Those opposed to the treaty warn of possible Irish participation in such operations and of the impact of this on our much-proclaimed neutrality. Those in favour of the treaty reject these claims and point to the Seville declarations as guaranteeing our neutral status.
The use of emotive arguments by anti-treaty campaigners, and the extraordinary ignorance of military matters displayed by pro-treaty groups, have generated unprecedented levels of confusion and misinformation.
In military terms, the choice facing voters is reasonably straightforward. Strictly speaking, a Yes vote would not dilute our neutral status. This is underlined by the recently secured Seville declarations which purport to exclude Ireland from any future common EU defence. The Taoiseach assures us that a referendum would be required to ratify any Irish involvement in such a defence.
This does not, however, rule out our involvement in the ERRF, to which we are committed to providing 850 troops. The type of operations which the ERRF may become involved in are described as the Petersburg Tasks. These include, for example, humanitarian and rescue tasks, crisis management, peace-keeping and peace-making operations. In the case of such operations, any potential Irish contribution would be subject to the "triple-lock" mechanism. That is to say, each mission would have to have a UN mandate, Government approval on a case-by-case basis, and Dáil approval.
The main effect of Nice, in military terms, would be to bring the ERRF directly under the control of EU institutions. A Yes vote would formalise the existence of an EU military committee and an EU military staff reporting to the European Council.
This formalised EU military staff would give the EU the command structures necessary for the launch of autonomous military operations within the definition of the Petersburg Tasks. This would fit with the St Malo declaration of 1998, which stated that the EU "ought to have the capability for autonomous action backed up by credible military forces".
The "credible military forces" available to the ERRF by 2003 would include up to 100,000 personnel, 100 warships and as many as 400 aircraft. The ground troops available would include conventional infantry, artillery and cavalry formations as well as special forces and soldiers trained in nuclear, chemical and biological warfare. Naval assets would include nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and attack submarines. Air assets would include squadrons of F-16 and F/A-18 fighter jets.
With a Yes vote for Nice, the "capability for autonomous action" spoken of in the St Malo declaration would mean that the newly formalised EU military staff (subject to the EU Council) would have the authority to launch military operations up to 2,500 miles beyond EU territory.
A key point to consider for making an informed choice on the military impact of Nice is the inclusion, under the Petersburg Tasks, of the term "peace-making". Peace-making or peace enforcement involves conventional combat strategy and tactics. Such operations are robust and require the use of maximum force. The military assets and formations available to the ERRF at present would make such operations possible under a formalised EU military staff.
The EU military staff exists in provisional form. It has among its members some distinguished Irish officers. Two Irish officers have served successively as directors of the EU military staff directorate of communications and information services. Indeed, Irish military personnel will be very much in demand for the ERRF given the Defence Forces's extensive overseas experience in UN peacekeeping and peace enforcement missions. Recent large-scale Defence Forces exercises reflect efforts by the military here to train for "inter-operability" with ERRF formations.
With a Yes vote and the formalisation of the EU military committee and EU military staff, a number of key points emerge. The treaty, legally speaking, would not affect our neutrality. However, the level of comfort provided by the Seville declarations would depend on the electorate's trust in present and future politicians to honour commitments.
The involvement of Irish men and women in a formalised EU military staff and security committee could represent an opportunity for our Defence Forces to influence the military decisions of our EU partners. Given the vast experience, expertise and maturity of Irish soldiers, this might be no bad thing.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army officer with experience in the Middle East and former Yugoslavia. He lectures at the School of Media, DIT