Stephen Collins: Does the fate of the Lib Dems await Labour in Ireland?

Should Labour Party TDs tremble in their boots at the fate of the Liberal Democrats in the UK, who were almost wiped out as a national political force after five years in coalition?

On the face of it, the two parties have a lot in common. Both have a long and proud history but have usually been in third place in national elections over the past 100 years. Despite that, they have retained a loyal cohort of followers through thick and thin.

Both went into coalition with larger, more conservative parties at a time of national economic crisis, knowing that in government they would have to stand over unpopular decisions required to repair the finances of their respective nations.

Both justified their decision to take power on the basis that their presence in government was necessary to temper the right-wing instincts of their coalition partners and protect vulnerable groups in society.

Very quickly after going into government, opinion polls showed support for both parties plummeting and that was followed by dreadful results in local and European elections.

Despite all of that, Nick Clegg and his party appeared to have fought a good campaign in the UK and had high hopes of retaining most of their 57 seats on the basis of the hard work many of their MPs had done at constituency level.

We know what happened. At national level, the party’s vote leaked away, dropping from 23 per cent in 2010 to 8 per cent last week and nothing its MPs had done at constituency level could staunch the flow.

Unexpected

The Lib Dems ended up with just eight seats out of 650 in the House of Commons while their Conservative partners in government won an unexpected overall majority.

So does the same fate await the Labour Party here? While there are obvious parallels between the positions of the two parties, there are also some very significant differences.

The crucial one is the voting system. The straight vote system in the UK is incredibly cruel to smaller parties. If the Liberals’ 8 per cent share of the vote translated into seats, the party would have won 52 seats rather than eight.

While the Irish system of PR STV is not exactly proportional, it will protect Labour from a similar implosion even if the party’s vote drops to about 8 per cent from the 19 per cent it won in 2011. With good transfers, it could even win significantly more seats than its share of the vote might warrant.

Another important difference with the UK is that Labour's big coalition brother Fine Gael has not embarked on a systematic programme of cannibalisation akin to the way the Tories behaved towards the Liberal Democrats.

In fact the reverse has happened, with both Labour and Fine Gael making it clear they intend to fight the next election as a team. That should help both parties but it could be of particular assistance to Labour in shoring up some of its vulnerable seats.

Of course there will be competition between Labour and Fine Gael TDs in every constituency to save their own skins as the first priority, but strong transfers between the two parties could make a huge difference to the final seat tally for both.

A crucial tactical decision made by Labour following Joan Burton’s accession to the leadership was to claim credit for the totality of the Coalition’s record rather than walking away from the unpopular bits.

In the UK, the Liberal Democrats adopted a very different approach during its final year in government. It made a determined effort to distance itself from its coalition partners and some of the more controversial decision made by the government.

In the process it helped to make itself irrelevant.

Here, by contrast, Labour has decided to claim full credit for its part in enabling the economic recovery to take place rather than just pointing to its role in protecting the vulnerable by maintaining basic social welfare rates.

In the past, when coming to the end of terms in coalition with Fine Gael, Labour made the same mistake as the Lib Dems by trying to point up serious difference with their partners rather than focusing on their real achievements in office.

So, instead of manoeuvring for position in order to break with Fine Gael on a point of difference, as happened in 1987, Labour appears intent on staying the course right to the end and claiming its full share of whatever credit is going for presiding over the recovery.

Rout

All of that doesn’t mean that Labour will be able to hold on to anything like the 37 seats it won last time around, but it might be enough to prevent a rout.

In the UK, fear of the political and economic instability that could arise if there had been a hung parliament played a key role in delivering an unexpected majority for the Conservatives.

When our election comes around, Labour and Fine Gael will be the only combination offering the same prospect of stability to voters as they consider their options before polling day. Fine Gael is better placed to capitalise on such a mood but it could also be a powerful aid to a struggling Labour Party.

One way or another, it will be a do-or-die campaign for Labour. If the party can hold about half its seats, it could be back in government for another term, .

If that happens, its long-term future could even be in doubt.