US Democratic Party bosses worry about the ultimate electability of Vermont Governor Howard Dean, but they are running out of time if they want to stop him taking their presidential nomination.
Conventional Clintonite wisdom is that the Republicans can only be beaten in 2004 from the centre ground, and Dr Dean is no centrist. With polls showing him racing ahead in the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucus (January 9th), the best hope of upsetting what appears increasingly like a runaway is probably the February 3rd primaries in the South, notably South Carolina, where the charismatic John Edwards stands a good chance of topping the poll.
Dr Dean's endorsement by former Vice-President Al Gore on Monday, to the rage of the latter's former running mate Joseph Lieberman, gives him an even greater edge. It appears to unite the party's establishment, modernising wing with the rank and file who yearn for a candidate willing to do battle with Bush on traditional Democratic values and the Iraq war. But the endorsement may also send out confusing signals. "It is almost as if the dovish Senator Eugene J. McCarthy, the insurgent hero of 1968, had been endorsed by the hawkish Harry S. Truman - flattering, of course; politically useful, surely; ideologically confusing, probably," the New York Times' RW Apple wrote yesterday.
Dr Dean and Mr Gore have made common cause on the war, and both see themselves as fiscally conservative, but they are still poles apart on social issues, as the former has made clear. "We lost a lot of races in 2002 because we decided to go to swing voters and \ the base would come along later," Dr Dean has argued. Democrats must stand for "those people who are with us all the time". It is language that delights the rank and file while alarming party bosses, particularly when they hear some arguing that, anyway, it is better to go down fighting.
Mr Bush's war chest of $170 million looks difficult to beat. But the task is not impossible. His record on jobs is poor, and on the war, increasingly unpopular. In a recent Time/CNN poll, 47 per cent said they were likely to vote for him and 48 per cent said they would not. But recent gubernatorial elections have gone against expectations, returning Republicans, and the Bush team are formidable campaigners. If Dr Dean can take the nomination early, without the internal acrimony often associated with the primary system, and can then reposition himself closer to the centre ground, he has the ability to inspire loyalty in his troops and fight a good campaign. He could give the Republicans a run for their money. But it would be inadvisable to put the family home on his chances.