Pope Benedict XVI's initial caution in his first consistory yesterday may well conceal a more radical intent, writes Jim Cantwell
The striking feature of Pope Benedict's first consistory, announced yesterday, is the extreme caution he has shown in his nominations. For the first time since 1994 the coming consistory will not raise the number of cardinal-electors - that is, all those under 80 - above the 120 ceiling fixed by Pope Paul VI in 1970.
Pope John Paul II derogated three times from this norm, most notably in his last consistory in October 2003 when the number of cardinal-electors reached an all-time record of 131. However, by the time of the papal election in April last year the number of electors was down to 115. Pope Benedict seems not to want to take any chances with fate.
One of the most significant features of the development of the College of Cardinals in recent decades is the extent to which it has been expanded and internationalised. There has been a significant increase in the representation from Latin America, Africa and Asia and a decline in the proportion of west Europeans. But Pope Benedict has hardly advanced that trend.
Half the new cardinals are European, who will make up exactly 50 per cent of the electoral college after the coming consistory. This is a sizeable disproportion since the continent has only 26 per cent of the world's Catholics.
There is only one Latin American among the new cardinal-electors. Brazil, the world's largest Catholic country, has been given no new cardinal and is now down to three electors. Yet the archbishops of nine Italian dioceses are cardinal-electors. There is no African among the new electors. There were 12 Africans at the 1978 papal elections. Their number is now down to nine.
True, Pope Benedict has increased the number of Asians by three, but they are all in dioceses, including Hong Kong, that have previously had cardinals. Not much innovation here. In fact, unlike all his predecessors over the past half-century, his list includes no cardinals from countries that have never had the honour.
Then there is the age profile. The average is 67 among the new electors, which does little to alter an already existing imbalance.
True, the average age of the electoral college will be lowered to 69 from 71, but what is most striking is the fact that only four of the 120 are under 60, compared to 22 out of 111 at the 1978 papal election. Almost two-thirds are aged 70 or over.
It may well be that Pope Benedict's initial caution conceals a more radical intent. He is known to feel that the Roman Curia is too unwieldy and in need of an overhaul. It is interesting that only three of the new cardinals are in the Curia, and all in very senior posts.
In addition, nine curial cardinals are aged 75 or over and will have to be replaced sooner rather than later. This gives urgency to the Pope's review of structures within the church's central government.
This could explain why Archbishop Diarmuid Martin was overlooked for the cardinal's hat this time. With the great need for new blood at the top in the Curia, the Pope may intend to recall Martin to Rome where he served with distinction for many years.
The fact that Martin has only been in the Dublin post for a short time and has much on his plate, most significantly the inquiry by the State into clerical sexual abuse in the diocese, would not necessarily prevent such a move if the Pope were so minded.
The Pope could then avail of an option that was not open to his predecessor, by appointing Bishop Eamonn Walsh as Archbishop.
He was sent to Ferns as apostolic administrator immediately after Bishop Comiskey's resignation in April 2002, specifically to sort out the mess left by the mishandling of sexual abuse allegations there.
Walsh was in the middle of that difficult assignment when the Dublin vacancy occurred. Having completed it with impressive authority and pastoral sensitivity, he is now free to move on. He would find himself in very familiar territory, since he remains an auxiliary bishop in Dublin and was a former secretary to Archbishop Connell.
In any case, Pope Benedict will have another opportunity to create more cardinals within the next two years. By February 2008 the number of electors will be reduced by 16, not including those who may die in the meantime.
Jim Cantwell was press secretary to the Irish Bishops' Conference from 1975 to 2000 and is author of The Election of the Pope