Is it back to the dreaded "D" word and demands for more IRA decommissioning - an issue many thought was resolved, asks Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor.
The Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) filled out a credit and debit sheet for the IRA yesterday that ultimately could take the wisdom of Solomon to politically reconcile. The dread D-word we thought was out of the equation came sneaking back on to the ledger. It could cause monumental difficulties in the months ahead.
Here's what's written in red: the IRA and/or its members have not decommissioned all their weapons; they are still engaged in intelligence gathering; still running massive smuggling and counterfeiting operations; still money laundering; still amassing a huge financial empire by breaking into the legitimate property and business sector.
And in black: the IRA has indeed end its armed campaign; it is not engaging in sanctioned violence and has no intention of so doing; it is no longer shooting people; it is not training, targeting or recruiting; it is telling its members not to riot; it has stopped robbing banks and post offices; it has closed down some criminal operations.
The loyalist organisations are still up to their necks in paramilitary activity and crime, the IMC reported, but there are indications they are considering following the example of the IRA by ending their armed campaigns.
The main focus yesterday was on the IRA because what it does determines whether or not it will be possible to restore the Executive and Assembly. The IMC's four members - Lord (John) Alderdice, Joe Brosnan, John Grieve and Dick Kerr - in presenting their report in Belfast yesterday, used the metaphor of a cumbersomely turning supertanker to portray the IRA. "The organisation will take a while to turn completely, and there is likely to be added turbulence in the wash as it does so," they said.
The report itself triggered quite an amount of political turbulence. For a start it pointed to differences of opinion between senior security people on both sides of the Border and put the findings of the IMC at odds with those of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD).
There was an expectation that this IMC report would say the IRA remained engaged in criminality but there was a question mark over whether this was centrally sanctioned and whether proceeds from such crime were going back to the leadership.
The comment, however, from the IMC that there was no apparent "diminution" in counterfeiting and the smuggling of fuel and tobacco means that if the IMC is correct, we are still talking about a multi-million business.
The IMC, furthermore, baldly states that the IRA is still spying on the police, the politicians, the British army, dissident republicans, drugs dealers, and public and private institutions. "This raises the question of whether the commitment to exclusively democratic means is full and thoroughgoing, or whether there remain elements of a continuing subversive intent going beyond the boundaries of democratic politics," the report says.
That is worrying in terms of the conditions ever being created to persuade Ian Paisley to share power with Gerry Adams. But even more incendiary was the IMC statement that it had received "credible" reports that IRA members - whether acting individually or with the connivance of the leadership, the IMC could not say - had retained a number of weapons. Not just handguns but more sinister unspecified weapons, it seems.
Lord Alderdice said it was IMC policy never to disclose its private sources. The IICD, however, in a statement yesterday hinted this information came from the likes of PSNI special branch and MI5. It conceded that over two weeks ago "security sources in Northern Ireland" said they had intelligence "that some individual groups within the IRA have retained a range of arms including handguns".
As the sources are from the North they are therefore likely to be the PSNI and MI5, probably acting on their own intelligence and that supplied by IRA members acting as British agents.
This prompted Gen de Chastelain and his IICD colleagues to double-check with senior officers in the Garda Síochána who "informed us that what they regard as reliable sources in relation to the IRA and its weaponry have produced no intelligence suggesting any arms have been retained".
They further checked with the IRA about two weeks ago, which assured them "that no IRA arms had been retained or placed in long-term hides".
So, clearly, there is a credibility issue here.
"The IRA would say that, wouldn't they" is perhaps the understandable reaction to the IRA assurances to the IICD. But which of the assessments in relation to arms is correct, that of the Garda or PSNI/MI5; that of the IMC or IICD? That's tricky and down the line could cause enormous problems. What must not be lost in all this analysis is the generally positive assessment by the IMC that this IRA supertanker is slowly turning in the right direction.
As the commissioners said, "We are of the firm view that the present PIRA leadership has taken the strategic decision to end the armed campaign and pursue the political course which it has publicly articulated. We do not think that PIRA believes terrorism has a part in this political strategy."
That's crucial. It means that come the next IMC report, the IRA may have detached itself further from criminality and paramilitary activity such as intelligence gathering. It may take longer than April for such a positive conclusion to be reached by the IMC. But it is attainable: the IRA could simply halt its spying operations. As long as the Border exists there will be smuggling, but the IRA could distance itself from such crime.
But what about the guns? Are we back to demands for more IRA decommissioning? Heaven help the political process if we are. It has often been said that we just don't know whether Ian Paisley would or would not do a deal. If he wants to prolong the process sometime into eternity, the dispute over weapons and ammunition the IRA may or may not have in its possession has presented him with the perfect excuse for never sharing power.