Super pubs, super fees, super war, super calamity and Northern Ireland. The joys of commentary. And the great question of the day: is Ireland so neutral nowadays that we don't interfere even in our own affairs, asks Vincent Browne
The super war is becoming a super calamity and the contours of that calamity are emerging. The war will take far longer than was envisaged by the war-gamers. The civilian deaths will be far higher and the military deaths will be higher too, perhaps up to 1,000 US and British military fatalities. (What are these poor soldiers dying for?) The devastation of Iraq will be shocking and awesome. And after the "victory", more killings, suicide bombings and maybe a civil war in the north.
Eleven years ago and a powerful American entertained a Washington audience with reflections on Iraq. He observed: "Saddam Hussein is a terrible person, he is a threat to his own people. I think his people would be better off with a different leader, but there is this sort of romantic notion that if Saddam Hussein got hit by a bus tomorrow, some Jeffersonian democrat is waiting in the wings to hold popular elections [laughter].
"You're going to get - guess what - probably another Saddam Hussein. It will take a little while for them to paint the pictures all over the walls again - \ - but there should be no illusions about the nature of that country or its society. And the American people and all of the people who second-guess us now would have been outraged if we had gone on to Baghdad and we found ourselves in Baghdad with American soldiers patrolling the streets two years later still looking for Jefferson" \.
The speaker was the then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Colin Powell. No audience would find such observations funny now. There is no democratic outcome on the cards and, if there were, the new president and government would be unacceptable to the Americans.
The originator of the military doctrine "shock and awe", Harlan Ullman, in his book Unfinished Business has written about the "crescent of crisis", the region from the eastern Mediterranean to the Bay of Bengal and encompassing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iraq and Iran, Afghanistan and the Pakistan-Indian conflict. He has urged two strategies to deal with this crisis: multilateralism, which involves the building of a worldwide coalition of states to deal with the problems coming from the region, and a concerted effort to defuse the tensions and rage there.
The American leadership, including a protege of Harlan Ullman, Colin Powell, has done precisely the opposite. It has shattered the coalition of states that joined in the war on terrorism after September 11th and it has hugely exacerbated the rage in the crescent of crisis.
Meanwhile, Ireland stands mute, on the sidelines, one arm longer than the other, too timorous to say anything or do anything that might offend. And who should be surprised? If our Government is too afraid to annoy the publicans, how could we expect them to annoy the Americans?
Michael Martin proposed a few weeks ago to ban smoking in pubs. Fianna Fáil backbenchers, who couldn't muster a cheep against our complicity in the war on Iraq, threaten revolt. Noel Davern, leader of the south Tipperary Fedayeen, has signalled a guerrilla campaign and we can expect the Government to relent.
As for an end to super pubs, forget it. Those who think Fianna Fáil nowadays stands for nothing, just watch this space. And you can forget also any interference with the inalienable right of the legal profession to charge whatever they like for their services.
Remember the timid attempt some years back to require barristers to divest themselves of wigs in court? Michael McDowell put paid to that, with a shock and awe campaign from the opposition benches. So what chance of interference with fees when Michael McDowell can engage in shock and awe within the Cabinet?
Which leaves us with the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone.
There is now an opportunity to put together a deal on Northern Ireland which might last for a few generations and which would consolidate the peace that has been won. The deal is a coalition of the willing (the UUP, SDLP and Sinn Féin) and the unwilling (the DUP). But more than that and more important than that, there is a chance to establish a police force that would have broad acceptance and would end paramilitarism. Policing is where it is at, for once policing is resolved, everything that matters in this context is resolved.
It seems there is a straightforward path towards this: full implementation of the Patton recommendations on policing and the requirement of Sinn Féin to commit itself unequivocally to the new police force, as a condition of its involvement in government (this complies with the requirements of the Good Friday agreement). But is our Government too neutral to do anything about this?