The Government can take very little comfort from today's Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll, which shows the lowest support ever recorded in this poll series for Fianna Fáil at 30 per cent.
The Progressive Democrats stand at 5 per cent. As the Oireachtas resumes next week there is much scope for the Opposition parties to make political capital out of the Government's difficulties. The Coalition has at least the comfort from this poll that their loss of popularity has not transferred wholesale to the opposition. Fine Gael is up marginally since the last poll in May, Labour is down but still on a definite rising trend since the last general election, while Sinn Féin and the Greens are steady.
The Coalition parties may feel their support has bottomed out after a very difficult year. Today's findings, however, leave the political field relatively open for the autumn and winter and into next year, ahead of local and European elections in June. Clearly the Government is still suffering from the perception that it has failed to deliver on its general election promises, showing up especially in sharply reduced satisfaction with the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern and the Tánaiste, Ms Harney. But there is also a note of realism in the political atmosphere, among the electorate as well as the political class. Effective and honest governing will be rewarded above an opposition, relying on rhetorical flourishes or opportunist promises, by an electorate well aware of the difficult domestic and international circumstances. There is ample scope for radical criticism of the Government's record, in terms of competence, timely implementation of policy and political objectives. But it has to be reasoned and well founded to convince. This poll finds voters in Dublin particularly open in this respect.
Fine Gael and its leader, Mr Kenny, can take some comfort from the poll, since the party is up two points. But there is no evidence of a surge in support arising from the Government's discomfort. Mr Kenny's personal standing remains low. The party has now a real opportunity to make a more distinctive political contribution and will be judged by whether it does so. Labour has more cause to be pleased since its support base has climbed steadily since the election and now stands at the levels it enjoyed before its electoral triumph in 1992, even though it is down three points on last May's poll, taken just after its conference. The challenge facing the party is to consolidate that growth and fill it out in policy terms.
Sinn Féin's increased support has been equally steady, albeit from a smaller base. It is now the fourth largest party and capable of increasing support if the political institutions are restored in Northern Ireland. The Green Party are holding their core support but appear adrift in policy terms.
The overall findings suggest the possibility of an alternative Fine Gael/Labour/Green government for the first time since last year's election. With the return of the Dáil and a tough budget on the horizon, it is all to play for.