THE 14TH UN climate change conference in Poznan was never likely to produce a dramatic breakthrough. Marking the half-way point between the last such gathering on the Indonesian island of Bali a year ago and the much more crucial conference in Copenhagen next December, it made relatively minimal progress on the increasingly urgent issue of global warming.
But at least delegates representing more than 180 countries reached agreement on a work programme for 2009, giving the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat a mandate to produce a negotiating text for Copenhagen covering all the issues that will need to be addressed there, including commitments by rich countries such as Ireland to make substantial cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions by 2020.
Inevitably, the proceedings in Poznan were overshadowed by the final round of bartering in Brussels on the EU's climate change and energy package. It is now more than two years since Europe first offered to make a unilateral 20 per cent cut in its emissions by 2020, in the hope that such a bold gesture would encourage others to follow suit. Indeed, the EU said it was prepared to go even further, reducing emissions by 30 per cent, if there was a multilateral agreement involving its principal competitors. But when it came down to the wire, intensive lobbying by high-energy users in industry, as well as member states heavily reliant on coal for electricity generation, ensured that the package adopted by the European Council in Brussels last Friday, although retaining the headline 20 per cent figure, was so heavily compromised that this target is now unlikely to be achieved.
At Poznan, ministers and other high-level representatives resolved to enter a full negotiating mode in 2009, with three further meetings scheduled in advance of the Copenhagen conference, at which a final deal aimed at addressing climate change and its potentially disastrous consequences is meant to be struck. During the course of these proceedings, what will be most interesting to observe is the impact of a new, more progressive US administration under Barack Obama in advancing the green agenda after eight years of obstruction by the Bush administration. It is even possible that the US could displace the EU in a leadership role, putting forward even more ambitious targets.
Increasingly, major developing countries are prepared to contribute to a global effort to cut emissions, even though they bear only a minimal responsibility for the build-up of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere. Mexico, for example, has pledged to cut its emissions by 50 per cent by 2050, while China is forging ahead in the adoption of renewable energy technologies. It is essential that every country, including Ireland, plays its part in reaching an equitable agreement in Copenhagen. The reality of economic recession should not be seen as a deterrent, still less as an excuse to postpone taking action, but rather as an opportunity to make the much-needed transition to a low-carbon future. Thatis the only realistic route we can follow to avoid catastrophic climate change.