With Tom Parlon's exit, it is questionable whether the Progressive Democrats can survive, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor
The decision by Tom Parlon to opt out of politics could not have come at a worse time for the Progressive Democrats. The fact that the party president has walked away from the prospect of being a senator and the likely next leader of the PDs, for a job in the private sector, is a depressing commentary on the future.
The party has now lost its leader and its president after a shattering election result and there have to be questions about whether it has any viable long-term future. With just two Dáil deputies, it is hard to see how it can be pulled back from the brink.
From Parlon's point of view, the offer of a well-paid job with the Construction Industry Federation was obviously difficult to resist. Having served one term as a TD and a junior minister at the Office of Public Works, it made sense to quit politics while he was ahead rather than attempt the task of trying to rebuild a traumatised party.
In any case, the odds would have been stacked against Parlon if he had stayed in politics and become the leader of the party. As a former farmers' leader based in the midlands, he would have had no clear appeal to the contracting PD constituency. The party's core appeal has always been to a section of the urban, middle-class electorate.
The fact that Parlon was widely expected to become the leader illustrated one of the core problems of the PDs.
The party's liberal message on taxation, the economy and social policy was one that should have had a wide appeal to people in reasonably well-paid jobs or in small business.
However, the party never managed to build a strong base among the people for whom it delivered substantial increases in take-home pay through its taxation policies. It did win a number of seats in a belt of southside Dublin middle-class constituencies for a few elections, but those were seats essentially borrowed from Fine Gael and they reverted when the going got tough.
The great failure of the PDs was that they never managed to get the credit for the economic changes that fuelled the Celtic Tiger. One of the crucial trends in the election was the Fianna Fáil success in winning seats in the commuter belt around Dublin. These were the constituencies where the PDs should have been making an impact if they were to survive as a potent political force.
Instead, the banker constituencies for the party were Dublin Mid West, where Mary Harney held on, and Galway West, where Noel Grealish had managed to retain and build on the political base carved out by Bobby Molloy. The party lost seats to Fine Gael in places such as Dublin South, South East and Dún Laoghaire, which will be very difficult, if not impossible, to win back.
One of the really depressing trends for the party is that it has lost votes at every election since it first burst on the electoral scene in 1987. It started off with just under 12 per cent of the vote but it slumped to just under 5 per cent in 1989 and has been dropping slowly since. This time around it won just 2.7 per cent and that cold fact is something the party will have to face up to.
Finding a new leader who will be capable of rebuilding from such a low base will be a tall order. The three leaders to date, Des O'Malley, Mary Harney and Michael McDowell, were all founder members back in 1985 and it was always going to be difficult to pass the mantle on to someone who came later. The circumstances of a defeated and reduced party have made that all the more difficult.
The names of a number of defeated Dáil candidates such as Fiona O'Malley, Tom Morrissey and Colm O'Gorman have been mentioned, but the task would a huge, if not an impossible one, for any of them. There is a stronger argument for Grealish, who has twice proved his ability to get elected to the Dáil. He didn't express any interest in the leadership in the wake of the election but he could be a formidable contender if he wants it. Under the current party rules he would automatically become party leader if Harney steps down, as he is the only other TD.
After the election the party set in train a review of the leadership rule to allow somebody who was not in the Dáil to become leader. This was widely interpreted as opening it up for Parlon, who was expected to be nominated to the Seanad. The review group is expected to report back by September, but the party appears to be in no rush to change the rule.
Liz O'Donnell, who had a much higher profile than any of the potential leaders, would have been a certainty if she wanted the leadership, but she too announced after the election that she intended to quit politics. If she could be persuaded to change her mind and come back as a senator, she would be an obvious choice for the party and would have a clear appeal to its remaining constituency. The other option would be for Harney to remain, if only she could be persuaded to do so.
The review of the leadership process is probably the last chance the party has to get its act together and much will depend on whether the members have the energy and enthusiasm left for the fight. The local elections in two years' time will be the real test of whether they have a future.