Paisley holds the key to deciding if Stormont returns

There seems little prospect of Sinn Féin and the DUP cosying up to each other in government

There seems little prospect of Sinn Féin and the DUP cosying up to each other in government. But as Ian Paisley said earlier this week, "miracles happen", writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor

Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair arrived at the seat of the ancient royal rulers of Ulster, Navan Fort (Emhain Macha) just outside Armagh, yesterday morning to publish proposals aimed at reinstating a modern form of local rule in six of the province's nine counties.

The Taoiseach and British prime minister concentrated on the three Ps - peace, power-sharing and policing. The unforgiving murder of Denis Donaldson illustrated that even eight years after the Belfast Agreement the peace remains tricky, notwithstanding how far we have come.

Their plan envisages a staged return to partnership government by November 24th. At the moment there seems little prospect of Sinn Féin and the DUP cosying up to each other in Stormont. Each blames the other for the deadlock. But as Ian Paisley said earlier this week, "miracles happen". Remember though, that was before Denis Donaldson was murdered.

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Sinn Féin signing up to policing is a prerequisite if peace and power-sharing are to be cemented, the two governments reasonably argue. Yet, there is nothing on the political horizon to say such a move is imminent.

Few reasons to be hopeful, therefore? The Taoiseach and British prime minister, however, are nothing if not dogged. They displayed an odd mixture of determination and peace process fatigue yesterday. Ahern said he had given "the best years of his political life" to the political process. Blair reminded us he has been trying to see this through to completion for almost 10 years now. But they were not giving up. Indeed Blair, when pressed, would give no hint about when he might hand the keys of No 10 Downing Street to Gordon Brown. (It was, in fact, comical that some of his officials masked over the "Exit" signs on the way into the Navan Fort conference room. This was to ensure photographers couldn't use that tired old idea of harried politicians being snapped under "exit" signs.)

Another indication of Blair's plan to remain in power much longer than Brown would hope? The two leaders know whether a deal will be possible chiefly hinges not only on Ian Paisley - but also on Gerry Adams. Neither Sinn Féin nor the DUP gave much away yesterday. The Sinn Féin president indicated he would at least test the proposals. Ian Paisley said he was happy to enter a diluted Assembly but there could be no deadline for establishing a fully-functioning Executive.

The Ahern/Blair roadmap, as reported here last month, involves restoring the Assembly on May 15th. Sometime in the six weeks thereafter there will be an attempt to elect a first and deputy first minister (Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness) and their Executive or cabinet, which must fail.

The Assembly will then go into a summer recess during which time Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will enter into "intensive talks" in Northern Ireland with the parties to see if the Executive can be established by the November 24th deadline. The Assembly will return in the autumn and the parties will have 12 weeks to strike a deal. If they fail Assembly members' salaries and allowances will be stopped and work to restore the Assembly and Executive will be deferred "until there is a clear political willingness to exercise devolved power". The Donaldson murder hung over yesterday's proceedings. Should it ever be established that this was an IRA leadership authorised "hit" then the governments and every sentient person on the island realise there can be no power-sharing for years to come.

Gardaí believe republicans were involved but can't say whether it was dissidents, IRA members going "solo", or IRA members operating with the imprimatur of the army council.

Some well-placed sources told The Irish Times yesterday that suspicion was falling on dissident republicans operating in the Derry and northwest area who were anxious to make life difficult for Adams and McGuinness. If this were to be established it would distance the Provisionals from responsibility.

Starting from today there is almost eight months for some form of limited trust to be established between the DUP and Sinn Féin.

There will be two Independent Monitoring Commission reports over that period. If they are positive about the IRA eschewing violence and criminality and if they further indicate that the Provos were not involved in Donaldson's murder then at the very least Paisley will be hard-pressed to explain why he would not enter into government with Sinn Féin in late November.

We would be into the blame game with the DUP subjected to most of the pressure.

The Ahern/Blair blueprint is pretty basic carrot and stick-type politics. The inducement for Northern politicians is exercising power.

The punishment though seems directed more at the DUP than Sinn Féin. If it all collapses on November 24th then Mr Ahern and Mr Blair made it clear that North-South co-operation will be beefed up.

That obviously would be to the benefit of republicans. Nonetheless Mr McGuinness in a number of interviews yesterday insisted the Sinn Féin preference was for Plan A, devolution rather than London and Dublin moving towards some form of common management of Northern Ireland.

By the same token it would still be direct rule ministers running the North, which is anathema to Sinn Féin. In the end though, as said so often before, it is really down to Ian Paisley. Yesterday was his 80th birthday. He can conclude his career trumpeting that he is the unrivalled leader of unionism or he can actually as First Minister run this place - albeit sharing some of that power with Martin McGuinness. It's a big call for him and nobody, probably not even Dr Paisley, knows what he will do in 33 weeks' time.

So, can it work? Even money on a deal would probably be the best odds obtainable from a bookie at the moment. The Taoiseach indicated if between now and November Northern Ireland could avoid the obstacles that often dog the process (bank robberies, marching violence and the like) then there was a chance Ian Paisley might bite. Which seems a reasonable read.